Let's see what comes next
Discussion sur GEO
Postes
16GEO Group Q2’25 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Revenue: $636.2M (Est. $622.0M) 🟢; +4.8% YoY
🔹 Adj. EPS: $0.22 (Est. $0.17) 🟢
🔸$300M Buyback announced
Q3 & Q4 Guidance
🔹 Q3 EPS: $0.20–0.23 (Est. $0.26) 🔴
🔹 Q3 Revenue: $650M–660M
🔹 Q3 Adj. EBITDA: $115M–125M
🔹 Q4 EPS: $0.28–0.35 (Est. $0.36) 🔴
🔹 Q4 Revenue: $658M–673M
🔹 Q4 Adj. EBITDA: $132M–147M
FY25 Guidance
🔹 FY Adj. EPS: $0.84–0.94 (Est. $0.93) 🟡
🔹 FY Revenue: ~$2.56B
🔹 FY Adj. EBITDA: $465M–490M
🔹 FY CapEx: $200M–210M
Other Metrics
🔹 Net Income: $29.1M vs. ($32.5M) YoY
🔹 Adj. EBITDA (Q2): $118.6M
🔹 H1 Revenue: $1.24B
🔹 H1 Net Income: $48.7M vs. ($9.8M) YoY
🔹 Net Debt (post-sale): ~$1.47B; Net Leverage: ~3.3x
Commentary
🔸 “We believe our equity is undervalued and the $300M buyback reflects our strong conviction.” – Exec. Chairman George C. Zoley
🔸 Lawton sale generated $312M; partial proceeds used to acquire Western Region Detention Facility
🔸 4 major ICE facility activations in 2025: Delaney Hall, North Lake, D. Ray James, and Adelanto
🔸 Adelanto center reopened after court restrictions lifted; ramping expected to add $31M annual rev
🔸 Extended ISAP contract with ICE through August; new bidding underway
Strategic & Company Updates
🔸 $300M share repurchase authorized through June 2028
🔸 Lawton Correctional Facility sold to State of Oklahoma for $312M
🔸 Acquired Western Region Detention Facility (San Diego) for ~$60M
🔸 Facility activations expected to add ~$240M in combined annual revenue at full ramp
Savings plans since 2022 pay off
In the summer of 2022, I started investing €25 every week in $GEO (-0,7 %) and also $RHM (-5,49 %)
to save. I tend to focus on security, real estate and everyday necessities.
Due to Trump and Putin, stocks like GEO and RHM have gone through the roof. But now there is too much riding on these two stocks.
I would now continue to invest in basic stocks. Nice January, but the summer will certainly be the opposite.


Buy the Axon dip?
Anyone buying the $AXON (-8,37 %) dip?
I think a lot of the Trump trade upside is already priced in but it might still make up the 15 per cent or so it lost recently. What do you think?
What I like about Axon is that it is not entirely dependent on state spending like the companies below.
I'm also got $GEO (-0,7 %) and $CXW (-1,09 %) on my watch list, band I've got an eye on $FSS (-0,49 %) Federal Signal and $REVG (+1,04 %) - but I think most is priced in here for now (though there could be more upside if Trump invades Canada 😉).
Could have, would have, bicycle chain.
$GEO (-0,7 %) I had a small holding in the portfolio until February. I bought this share in June 2023 because of rising interest rates. My assumption was that there would be more crime due to the high interest rates (yes, I am a pessimistic realist). As the share did not perform as I had hoped, I sold it with a minimal gain and switched into $XRP (-3,17 %) and reallocated.
However, I had absolutely no idea that this company would benefit so much from a Trump victory.
I sometimes bite myself in the ass when the chart appears in my favorites. Since patience (or luck) pays off from time to time, as we have seen with $XRP? (-3,17 %)
How do you handle this experience?
Do you cry over a spilt glass of milk?

Just seen $GEO (-0,7 %) is up around 50%, outperforming all cryptos, $TSLA (-0,01 %) and $PLTR (-1,45 %) by far.
For those who don't know, Geo is a provider for the US prison system
So the market is expecting Trump to clean up properly 😂
Barrick Gold Non-GAAP EPS of $0.30 misses by $0.02, revenue of $3.37B beats by $30M $ABX
EPAM Systems Non-GAAP EPS of $3.12 beats by $0.42, revenue of $1.17B beats by $20M $EPAM (-1,93 %)
Air Products and Chemicals Non-GAAP EPS of $3.56 beats by $0.09, revenue of $3.19B misses by $30M $APD (-2,3 %)
Ares Commercial Real Estate DEPS of $0.07 misses by $0.02, revenue of $16.65M misses by $0.38M $ACRE (+2,06 %)
GEO Group misses Q3 estimates $GEO (-0,7 %)
Topic Sin Stocks - Stocks that are considered a sin
Hello Community,
Today I would like to introduce you to a stock category that should divide opinion. We're talking about so-called "sin stocks".
While many focus on ESG, sustainability and the like, there are also investors who look for the exact opposite. I am one of them.
Some people know sin stocks classically from the areas of alcohol, tobacco and gambling. I would like to make it a little more interesting and expand the sin area.
To do this, I'm using the 7 deadly sins of mankind and would like to present some stocks that (can) go hand in hand with them: Pride, Avarice, Lust, Envy, Gluttony, Wrath and Sloth.
First of all, I would like to avoid moral discussions if possible. If you are already catching your breath, please skip this article.
Sin 1: Pride.
He who is to perish first becomes proud, and pride comes before a fall
This includes companies that are active in the luxury segment. For example $RMS (+4,27 %) , $RACE (+1,7 %) or the very popular $MC (+2,81 %). In my view, what makes them interesting is that the more luxurious they are, the less dependent they are on the economy. The super-rich hardly mind if there is an economic crisis. They can also achieve exorbitant margins, as the pricing has to correspond to luxury.
Sin 2: Greed
Because greed is the root of all evil
Greed stocks include the financial sector and its shares. For example $JPM (+1,52 %) or $DBK (-1,6 %) but also commodity companies such as $XOM (-0,97 %)
To be honest, I am less familiar with this sector than with other sectors - the financial industry is generally less interesting due to its lack of transparency.
I find commodity companies more interesting - perhaps even more so "suppliers" such as $NE (+1,7 %) which count as manufacturers of drilling rigs.
Sin 3: Lust
I don't have any shares in this portfolio myself. For a long time I flirted with $RICK (-2 %) They are active in the "adult entertainment" sector and run strip clubs. They also run restaurants ("bombshells") where the waitresses' work clothes are made of very little material. However, these bombshells are not that attractive from my point of view, which is why I didn't get involved.
You can certainly also include apps like $GRND (+0 %) can certainly be included here.
Do you have / do you know of any stocks that you would classify here?
Sin 4: Envy
In this category you can put cosmetics stocks like $OR (+0,06 %) or social media stocks like $META (+0,47 %) can be counted in this category. My portfolio is also underrepresented here.
Sin 5: Gluttony
Binge drinking and gluttony characterize people who are lost
The classic among the sin stocks. These can include alcohol companies such as $DGE (-1,45 %) tobacco companies like $PM (-0,94 %) or fast food companies like $MCD (+0,22 %)
Even more blatant would be something like $TSN (-0,53 %) as a meat producer.
As tobacco or alcohol (can) be addictive, there is a strong lock-in effect. This is probably why many investors steer clear of such shares.
I see $MNST (-0,91 %) as one of the most exciting gluttony stocks. As manufacturers of energy drinks, they remind me a little of tobacco companies, but they are hardly regulated and can advertise freely. Strong growth of the market - and the share.
Sin 6: Anger
The second classic. All stocks in the defense industry can be counted under wrath. A few years ago, they were frowned upon from an ESG perspective, but they are now almost back in vogue. $LMT (-2,44 %) , $RTX (-2 %) or $RHM (-5,49 %) should be familiar to most people. They are heavily dependent on government orders and therefore political decisions. However, the trend over the next few years should be upwards.
In my view, an exciting "Zorn" share is $AXON (-8,37 %) . This is a supplier to the police, primarily in the USA. For example with bodycams or tasers. I was on the verge of getting in at 90$ - and unfortunately missed it.
Sin 7: Sloth
Don't be lazy when it comes to being diligent
Companies that contribute to inactivity or passivity could be categorized here. First and foremost the gambling industry. I see the most exciting value here in $EVO (+0,14 %). One of the stocks with the highest weighting in my portfolio. It is a "supplier" for online casinos. The growth is enormous - the gaming industry is still very much analog. However, the online segment is growing at double-digit rates per year - as is Evolution Gaming. Plus a nice dividend.
Otherwise, you can also make use of various stationary casino operators.
That was my ride through the Sin Stocks.
I would now like to know what exciting sin stocks you have.
And also whether you see any other sin stocks.
By the way, I had the prison operator in my head the whole time $GEO (-0,7 %) in my head the whole time - it seems to me to be the final stop for many sins.

GEO Group ($GEO (-0,7 %) ), a prison operator has today reached a new 4 year ATH due to an agreement reached with certain creditors to settle debt due in 2 years.
Geo Group announced that the creditors had agreed to pay 177 million US dollars of the Senior Note Bond (6.5% yield, 2026 maturity) in exchange for 305 million US dollars swap.
In addition, GEO Group announced on Thursday that it has completed a private placement of senior notes bonds totaling 1.28 billion US dollars completed. These bonds have a maturity date of 2029 and 2031.
The company estimates, together with another loanprofits of around 1.67 billion US dollars.

Stock analysis/Share presentation ⬇️
Today we are talking about the company Geo Group: $GEO (-0,7 %)
What is and does Geo Group anyway 🧐
Geo Group is a company that specializes in providing security and prison services. They operate and manage correctional facilities and offender rehabilitation facilities. Geo Group provides programs and services aimed at ensuring community safety and promoting the reintegration of inmates into society. They work closely with government agencies to advocate for a safe and effective correctional system. Geo Group operates in the U.S. and other countries and is committed to supporting the correctional system.
How many employees does the company have: 🙋🏽♂️🙋🏻♀️
Currently, Geo Group has a total of approximately 170 employees.
Market capitalization: 🏦
Currently, Geo Groupp has a market capitalization of around 950 million euros.
Dividend yield: 💰
The company does not currently pay a dividend to its shareholders.
Strengths of the share: 📈
Some strengths of Geo Group are:
- Experience in providing security and prison services.
- Operation and management of correctional and halfway houses
- Working closely with government agencies and meeting their needs - Focusing on community safety and protecting the public
- Providing programs and services to promote inmate reintegration
- Commitment to providing a safe and effective correctional system
- Experience in managing and securing jails and prisons - Expertise in the security industry and knowledge of relevant regulations and best practices
- Use of advanced technologies and security systems to ensure jail safety and security
- Successful collaboration with partners and other stakeholders in the correctional system.
Weaknesses of the share: 📉
Some weaknesses from Geo Group include:
- Lack of transparency and public accountability in some cases - Criticism of the company's profit orientation and potential conflicts with the goal of resocialization.
- Allegations of human rights violations and abuse at some facilities
- Challenges in recruiting and maintaining qualified staff in a demanding work environment
- Difficulties in managing overcrowding and ensuring adequate conditions of confinement
- Potential dependence on government contracts and mandates, which can lead to uncertainty
- Challenges in managing security risks and protecting against violence within facilities
- Criticism of privatization of the prison system and concerns about maximizing profits at the expense of inmates and society.
A little more on the business model:
Geo Group's business model is based on providing security and prison services. The company operates and manages correctional and halfway houses in various countries. Geo Group works closely with government agencies to meet their requirements and ensure community safety. The company places a high priority on protecting the public and is committed to providing a safe and effective correctional system. A central focus of Geo Group's business model is to promote the reintegration of inmates. The company offers a variety of programs and services designed to help inmates rehabilitate and prepare for life outside of prison. These include educational and vocational programs, psychological support, drug and alcohol rehabilitation, and social integration programs. Geo Group has extensive experience in managing and securing prisons and detention centers. The company uses state-of-the-art technology and security systems to ensure prison security. These include surveillance systems, access control, alarm systems and emergency response. Geo Group works closely with partners and other stakeholders in the correctional system to ensure effective and efficient law enforcement. The company takes a holistic approach that considers the needs of inmates, the community and staff.
When and where was Geo Group founded:
Geo Group was founded in 1982 in Wetzlar, Germany. It is a leading provider of security and surveillance technologies. The company develops and produces innovative solutions for the protection of people and property. It offers a wide range of products and services, including video surveillance systems, access control systems and alarm systems. Geo Group has made a name for itself worldwide and today operates in over 70 countries. Its mission is to provide safety and security in all aspects of life. .
A little more about the industry from Geo Group:
Geo Group is a company that specializes in providing solutions to the prison and correctional industry. The company offers a variety of services including prison design, construction and operations, electronic monitoring systems and offender rehabilitation programs. Geo Group works closely with government agencies to ensure that correctional facilities are operated safely and efficiently. The company has a global presence and operates in many countries worldwide. Geo Group's goal is to provide innovative solutions that contribute to the rehabilitation of offenders while ensuring public safety. The company is committed to providing quality services to its customers and contributing to the improvement of the correctional system.
Goal of Geo Group: 🏁
Geo Group's goal is to provide safety and security in all aspects of life. Through innovative technologies and solutions such as video surveillance systems, access control systems and alarm systems, Geo Group strives to protect people and property. Their focus is to provide high quality security solutions that meet the needs and requirements of their customers. Geo Group's mission is to be a global leader in the security industry and to have a positive impact on the safety and well-being of people.
Your opinion: 🤔🧐
Now I'd love to hear your thoughts on this stock in the comments.
What do you think of Geo Group and did you already know this company?
Do you guys have this stock in your portfolio as well?
Feel free to let me know in the comments.
Of course, this is not an investment advice but just my own opinion that I would like to share with you.

Titres populaires
Meilleurs créateurs cette semaine