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MicroStrategy: Extreme overvaluation despite stagnating core business

MicroStrategy's ($MSTR (-7,42 %) ) share price currently seems overvalued to me. The company currently owns 499,096 Bitcoins, which at a Bitcoin price of USD 85,470 have a total value of around USD 42.7 billion. At the same time, Strategy has net debt of around USD 4.2 billion, resulting in net assets of around USD 38.5 billion.


Comparing this to the current market capitalization of around USD 106 billion (with a share price of USD 255.43 and 415 million shares outstanding), the stock appears to be trading well above its fundamental value.


Based on a realistic valuation, the share price should be around USD 92.77 - i.e. around 63.7% below the current price. Unless Strategy's bitcoins are worth more than all other bitcoins, or the market expects a massive increase in the bitcoin price.

MicroStrategy shows no growth in operating business. Revenue fell by 3% to USD 120.7 million in Q4 2024. In addition, the company has reduced its workforce by around 20%, particularly in research, sales and consulting. The software business contributes only minimally to the valuation. So why are you investing?


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10 Comentarios

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Anyone who believes that BTC will rise before the majority of the debt matures, and also wants MSTR to collect more BTC per share (BTC yield), is paying a premium for this expectation, and I think that is currently fair in terms of risk/reward, given the global development and game theory behind BTC.
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1Semana
Because people are hoping that the share will function even more as leverage and they want to make money😅
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@Barrd exactly that, my only speculative asset right now, if bitcoin rises, strategy will rise too.
i think many people realize that the company is not doing very well economically, but everyone wants to ride the btc wave. 🏄‍♂️
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@1Chrischi1 then why not invest in BTC and sell it tax-free after a year
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@Aktienfox I do the same.

but strategy acts more like a lever on bitcoin and that's what makes it so interesting.

have a look at this video:

https://youtu.be/tA6Ru77xU6Q?feature=shared
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NAV Premium is the name of this surcharge on Bitcoin. Many institutions are not allowed to buy BTC. Having Bitcoin exposure via a share is apparently worth this premium to them. The NAV premium was only 0.6 in some cases in 2022. Last year it was over 3. I think the current valuation is relatively fair.
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Microstrategy is a joke
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@Demas if Microstrategy is a joke, Bitcoin is aswell. Because Microstrategy is Bitcoin
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@der_Don lol, yes if bitcoin falls microstrategy is bankrupt. Their business idea is not that good. I would invest directly in BTC
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@Demas Bitcoin needs to go to aprox 20k so Strategy is near of going Bankrupt. If Bitcoin goes to 20k we have other problems then MSTR loosing liquidity.
I‘m a big fan of Michael Saylor (MSTR CEO). If bitcoin falls, he‘ll figure out how to handle it because he knows bitcoin better then 99% of the people investing in it
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