4D·

What was Warren Buffet thinking with his oil investments and is he wrong in the long term? (Sector analysis energy and utilities)

When $BRK.B (-0,11 %) started during the Corona crisis $OXY (+5,42 %) and $CVX (+3,43 %) many people didn't understand this. Tech was more popular than ever at the time and oil was considered dead. A short time later, it became clear that oil was here to stay. As discussed in the last market review, the energy sector was one of the best investments during the pandemic.


However, this was probably a special boom for fossil fuels that was to remain a one-off. Since the price explosion, the energy sector has been in a very weak trend and is the worst performing sector directly after healthcare (which could therefore also be very interesting at the moment).


In particular, the dynamic has shifted from oil & gas to electricity - which, however, is not counted as part of the energy sector in the classic GICS but as part of the utilities sector. The reason for this is, of course, the expected triumph of artificial intelligence and the associated hunger for energy in data centers. The best-known company in the sector is probably $NEE (+0,43 %)


In any case, Buffet's investments in fossil fuels have not been particularly worthwhile to date, as he may have made a favorable initial entry, but then often bought at unfavorable prices. At the current point in time, the investment case has not yet worked out. It is therefore an interesting question whether Buffet is speculating on something that has not yet been understood by the market or whether it is one of the rare situations in which the good Warren has miscalculated something (think of the disaster around $KHC (+0,65 %) ). At any rate, it is difficult to understand what Buffet was thinking and whether his theory is still intact.


Incidentally, I myself am not invested in either utilities or energy, which I think is a great pity. However, I have not been able to identify any company that is currently really convincing in terms of its figures and can be described as a quality company.


What about you? Do you have any oil, gas or electricity stocks in your portfolio?


(And the < 5% exposure in the World ETF does not count)

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18 Comentarios

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@loginvest Ahh the Austrian national share
@Soprano Well, as a German you can reclaim another 12.5% in Austria. It's not all that easy in the EU yet
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I also don't really understand why Buffet from
$ULTA and $NU
is out
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@Tenbagger2024 He certainly did not make the investments, but presumably Greg Abel, who is not quite as buy-and-hold oriented as the two old men (although he is actually an old man himself)
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@Soprano true. I can well imagine them taking over but now that Greg is coming in it's unlikely. Regardless of that, I just don't think Buffet's investment style works these days. Without him being a suspect, without Apple his portfolio would be full of shit. That's why I don't believe in Berkshire and would bet on the stock getting a holding discount now.
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@topicswithhead They have been at a discount for a long time. Incidentally, I am currently investing in Berkshire and expanding my position. In the meantime, however, the best thing about Berkshire is its subsidiaries, while the investment portfolio is becoming less and less relevant, which is due to the fact that Berkshire finds it difficult to buy shares in relevant sizes.

Apple is not my favorite among the Big Techs either, I'm glad that he has reduced there. But nothing new has come along either. So there really isn't much good in the portfolio apart from $AXP $KO $MCO and $CB and the rest are all mini positions that don't bring anything anyway (Amazon, VISA etc.)
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@Soprano well, a real discount would be 0.7 to 0.9 bookvalue, which is still a long way off
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@topicswithhead After sum of the parts should still fit
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Currently invested in $EOAN
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@Hajo Also courageous
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@Soprano What makes you think that?
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Several, $WCP $GPRK $MAU $MOL and I’ve been trying to get some shares of $ELEC
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$EQNR, $VAR, $PETR4 and $OMV, but less in expectation of great performance than from a dividend perspective
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$NEE. Fundamental quality and market position.
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$IBE better fundamentals and balance sheet than $NEE
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$SHEL $TTE $SNP Oil and gas will be with us for a long time to come. We will not be able to replace them in the foreseeable future. There are many reasons for this, which I could go on about for pages. The fact is that consumption is increasing rather than decreasing and there are still billions of people who do not have access to a stable energy supply or mobility.
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