10Lun·

11th German Raw Materials Night 💰🥇

Generally quite interesting, I had not dealt with commodities before. In addition to asset managers, mining companies from Canada 🇨🇦 $CXB (+1,94 %) and oil companies from the USA 🇺🇲 $SMK presented themselves.

Conclusion (according to the trade fair, no advice😂)

The gold price has broken out of its multi-year consolidation.

Gold mines require an active management approach.

Is silver the new uranium?

12-month gold price at around USD 2700, short-term consolidation possible

Inflation shock -> interest rate shock -> recession shock -> PIVOT

Private gold demand is dominated by the emerging markets.

Investment point that I have taken with me is to take a closer look at $8001 (+2,73 %) Itochu. It's been on my watchlist for a long time, might be added to my portfolio, has a nice commodity component.

17 Comentarios

Epi@Epi

10Lun

Thanks for the report!
Has anything been said about the reaction of institutional investors to the recent developments in the gold market?

•

DerDanner@Therapeut

10Lun

@Epi As I understand it, it was said that the emerging markets are buying gold at whatever price.

••

Epi@Epi

10Lun

@Therapeut I actually meant the Western institutional investors. You can see from the asset distributions that if they divert just 1-2% of equity and bond capital into gold, the price will double in purely mathematical terms. The West is simply heavily ideologized by financial market science, which has nothing to do with gold. But that can change. That's why I'm asking.

•

DerDanner@Therapeut

10Lun

@Epi It was said that commodities are generally niche products and often lack incentive.
One example was Bitcoin, which nobody wanted and then became interesting thanks to the ETF, so that many followed suit and had to invest.

••

Epi@Epi

10Lun

@Therapeut Now that's interesting information! The world lives from raw materials, many of which are slowly running out or are becoming increasingly difficult to extract. Isn't the laconic statement "niche product" a wildly flashing alarm light for the start of a new super cycle? I mean, that's exactly what was said about Bitcoin in 2015/16. 🤔

•

DerDanner@Therapeut

10Lun

@Epi Yes, they also talked about the possibility of a super cycle now📈
They also said that they would assume a gold backed currency in the future, but that could take decades

•