2Lun·

My dear ones "Happy Easter"

Euphoric due to the small and short rally after the Trump election. I envisioned a different scenario for the year 2025 than we have now...

And contrary to all the crash prophets, I expected a positive US market at the beginning of the year. That's why I stupidly made another good investment at the end of the year. And logically, these stocks are now all down sharply. And have very quickly reduced the good overall performance I had achieved over the years to plus/minus/zero.

Incidentally, I only started investing again in 2023 after a long break. $GFT (-0,33 %) GFT is the only stock from older days.

CONCLUSION

- You're always smarter afterwards

- @Epi I would now say, why didn't you reallocate early enough? My opinion here was and remains that selling in panic is also not sensible. And as a small investor, you're usually too late anyway.

- Everyone actually knew that the US market had done far too well and was overheated.

- and Trump always announced the tariffs during the election campaign. So now he's doing things that don't come out of the blue.

- Nevertheless, I remain optimistic and have already bought a few more positions.

Because everyone knows that the "Orange Man" is a deal maker. He probably loves his country more than any other president. Otherwise his motto would not be "MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN".

And that's why I believe that agreements will soon be reached.

- History shows us that things will continue to go up in the long term.

My dears, it pays to persevere. This is shown by the green side #grueneostern of my portfolio, which tends to hold my long-term stocks

$LTMC (-1,97 %) Lottomatica is a new investment, but one that is not affected by tariffs and has developed positively as a result. So it's also worth keeping an eye out for stocks that won't be dragged down by the "Orange Man".

34 Comentarios

Epi@Epi

2Lun

Why didn't you restructure early enough? 😅

No, you're one of the longer-term investors. It was more the macro and momentum investors who reallocated.

I would rather ask you why you don't diversify your strategies?

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Tenbagger2024@Tenbagger2024

2Lun

@Epi
You mean why I don't go into other assets like gold and bonds?
I have Bitcoin, but since it has also developed negatively, I am also slightly in the red here. I think I will buy more here in the next few days.
Gold had simply done too well for me.
(You're always wiser afterwards).
But I think that with rising stock markets gold will also fall again. And it probably makes little sense to get in now.
Perhaps a gold mining ETF?
What do you think?

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Epi@Epi

2Lun

@Tenbagger2024 I am currently holding back (1/3 cash). The gold/gold mining shares are keeping my portfolio well afloat, but I would also wait for a setback before making a new entry. I find silver very interesting at the moment. I expect a significant rise soon.

But I wasn't actually talking about alternative assets, but alternative strategies. You are investing all your capital in the same strategy (B&H&Check Growth). In strong bear markets, this can mean significant stress for the portfolio (up to -80%). Diversifying a certain part of the portfolio into other strategies, e.g. Momentum, GTAA, Spytips, can significantly reduce the drawdown.

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Tenbagger2024@Tenbagger2024

2Lun

@Epi
Yes, my dear, perhaps that makes sense. I'm already betting quite heavily on growth stocks, which are naturally punished the most in a bear market. Especially tech stocks. But since bull markets predominate over a period of 10-20 years, it should pay off in the end. And bear markets should be used to buy more. And in the long term, I think that growth stocks will perform better. Growth keeps PEG and P/E ratios attractive and allows share prices to rise. I also like to look for a high and increasing EbiT margin. One mistake was that I got in too high on some stocks. Patience is now required here.

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Epi@Epi

2Lun

@Tenbagger2024 Strategy diversification does not mean turning away from growth stocks. You could continue to bet on it, just with a different strategy, e.g. one that avoids the brutal tech bear markets but enters bull markets all the more aggressively.
A large proportion of strategies actually only try to reduce the drawdown.

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Tenbagger2024@Tenbagger2024

2Lun

@Epi
Yes, good . With ETFS you can restructure your portfolio very quickly. But with a large number of individual stocks, it's a challenge. So close your eyes and go for it.
I see less of a problem with quality companies in the long term.

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Epi@Epi

2Lun

@Tenbagger2024 There are Nasdaq100-based dual momentum strategies where you switch 1-2 stocks per month. I think that's reasonable. Combined with a savings plan, it becomes even more manageable.
1/3 each of B&H Tech, B&H Quality and Dual Momentum Tech should bring a lot of calm to the portfolio without having to sacrifice significant long-term returns.

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Tenbagger2024@Tenbagger2024

2Lun

@Epi
Sounds interesting. How is your performance looking? Why don't you take part in the challenge?

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Epi@Epi

2Lun

@Tenbagger2024 I'd rather not. The last two times I opened my portfolios for viewing, I was badly insulted. Many people don't understand that my portfolios are just snapshots that could look completely different next month.

If anything, a YTD performance chart would say something about the interplay of my strategies in these wild times. But unfortunately the charts don't match reality because Getquin can't cope with mapping the shifts.

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Tenbagger2024@Tenbagger2024

2Lun

@Epi
Oh dear, why? Constructive criticism is okay. But insulting is not.

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Epi@Epi

2Lun

@Tenbagger2024 Well, they went something like this: - -What are you talking about diversification and you only have 3 ETFs?
Or like this:
-What are you criticizing my B&H Core Satellite strategy for? You have two stocks in the red yourself!
Or like this:
- Look at your portfolio, you have no idea yourself.

Oh no, you don't have to.

But for you: my overall portfolio is up just under +5% YTD. Mainly because of gold.
April is going well so far because I have shifted almost all other RiskOnAssets into the money market. Apart from gold and some silver, only the 3xEurostoxx in 3xGTAA, a few gold mining stock ETFs and a uranium mining holding remain. I'm curious to see when things will pick up again.
Then your portfolio should definitely be the first to rise! 👍

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Ver todas las 15 respuestas adicionales

Harald@Madhatter5566

2Lun

Well, 24 was just too good, 25 was the setback. In the long term, you shouldn't just diversify with equities and anyone who has just started investing will be in the red. It happens, you have to get through it. With a daily allowance or a pillow you would always be in the red! I think many people forget that.

But I don't see the problem in the long term, it will recover. As long as you don't sell bluntly now and don't have any speculative individual companies. But I think it's a good lesson for those who only ever know "upwards". My boring ETF portfolio, which I built up in 2008, is also in the red; if that were my only item, I would probably be annoyed too. But the gold price is going up instead. So am I in the red? Nope. If I were better off, I would have put everything into worlds of ifs. Sure! That's why I'm annoyed: Nope.

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