Anbei meine Gedanken zu den Q1-Quartalszahlen (auf Englisch, da einfacher):
Positive
- Elon seems to be back, allocating far more time to Tesla (starting in May) and looking forward to continuing to lead the team to „great success in the future“
- Successful model Y changeover in all 4 plants across 3 continents
- Sold out all legacy Model Ys
- Record number of test drives globally in Q1 —> good indicator for demand but unclear how much translates into sales
- Start of production of cheaper models still planned for June, but indications of slow ramp
- Robotaxi on track for launch in Austin in June and to be in „many other cities in the US“ by the end of this year
- FSD unsupervised on personally owned cars before the end of this year in the US
- Cybercab on schedule for production next year (currently in B-sample validation in Giga Texas)
- Unboxed process for Cybercab likely at <5s cycle time (Giga Shanghai at 33s)
- Robust operating cashflow generation, despite lowest delivery numbers since Sep-22 —> record operating cashflow on TTM basis and rising trend since Mar-24
- 156% YoY growth in energy storage deployments and continued strong demand for megapack —> on track to deliver 50% YoY growth in deployments in 2025
- Record gross profits in energy storage, despite sequentially lower deployments (10.4GWh in Q1-25 vs. 11.0GWh in Q4-24)
- Sequential increase in R&D, esp. AI-related initiatives and development cost for vehicle program —> bad for margins but good to position Tesla for the long-term
- Most vertically integrated car company, thus best positioned to protect against supply chain disruptions
- Highly localized supply chain in America, Europe and China, thus stronger position on tariffs vs. competitors
- Working on getting into India (interesting market due to big middle class, but high tariffs)
- Record cash reserves ($37b)
- Increase in deferred tax assets (2% QoQ)
- Prediction of millions of Teslas operating fully autonomously in the second half of next year (>90% market share) —> seems too optimistic
- Prediction of thousands of units of Optimus robots towards end of this year and 1 million units per year by 2030 —> seems underwhelming considering earlier rhetoric
- Prediction of Tesla becoming the most valuable company by far (in case of strong execution)
Negative
- Disappointing delivery numbers, likely driven by a combination of global model Y changeover, brand damage, lack of affordability (high ASP, high interest rates) and potentially lower as expected demand
- Disappointing Cybertruck deliveries (included in „other“ which declined 24% YoY) —> reasons unclear, e.g. still in ramp, high ASP or lack of demand?
- ASP (-8% YoY) declining faster than COGS (-3% YoY), thus negative impact on automotive gross margins
- New low in automotive gross margin, excl. regulatory credits (12,5% vs. close to 20% two years ago) —> some of it might be intentional to increase affordability to stimulate demand?
- Strong decline in net profits (-63% YoY) and EPS (-65%)
- Ramp of cheaper models might be slower than hoped initially
- Robotaxi not expected to be material to company financials before mid / end of 2026 —> might be optimistic
- General scepticism towards Elon’s historical timelines and predictions, e.g. 20m cars by 2030, externals sales of Optimus promised for end of 2025, millions of Robtaxis by next year, etc.