1Semana·

The future of mobile communications

$ASTS (+0,86 %) could be the future of mobile communications as the entire terrestrial infrastructure such as masts and the like could become irrelevant with only 200 satellites in space.

That is the mission and the business model at its core.

They currently have two factories for their satellites and one launch per month, which results in enormous CAPEX costs (see photo)

The company is clearly a bet a version and that is to handle the three billion customers of Verizon, Telekom and Co. via a satellite. If this works, it would save costs and they would get paid for the service. Now someone might come up with Starlink (yes, but they are focusing on other services).

The company currently has hardly any turnover, but has secured orders from B2B and governments, plus they have patents and the factories.

The revenue is also irrelevant for now as they have to build the infrastructure and they have already raised $900 million for that.

They are currently launching 6 satellites into orbit per launch, so at the current rate it could take another 1-2 years before the service could be offered globally, which is why they are concentrating on the USA as their first market, and this could soon really take off, as can be seen from the 2026 forecast.

An investment is currently still very speculative and the valuation is high compared to the status quo, but I find the future development exciting and am keeping an eye on the share.

13 Comentarios

Johannes@Johannes1993

1Semana

I'm up 45% and am considering adding to my holdings after the setback. I personally like the idea and the concept. Could become something big 🙂

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John@Doe

1Semana

Thanks @Aktienfox for the brief insight, interesting company. It's now on my watchlist and will be inspected more closely. 😁👍🏼

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Aktienfox@Aktienfox

1Semana

@Doe with pleasure 😉 that's where the share is for me too

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Chandra@Chandra

Phew... as a long-time $ASTS investor, I can tell you that the goal is not to dismantle all radio masts. They are still needed in cities. The aim is to eliminate dead spots so that you have reception everywhere and can use the Internet (!).

I also don't know how you come up with one launch per month at the moment. The last launch was last year in September. The next one announced is with ISRO (Indian company) in Q4 25/Q1 26 and they can only launch one satellite. Although the earnings call said 1 launch every 1-2 months in 2025/26, none has been announced with an exact date and there have been 0 launches so far this year. Otherwise the share price would be much higher.

It is also interesting to note that the military is very heavily involved. (Slide 10 of the earnings presentation from Q2 2025)

(Investor since 2022)

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Smudo@Smudeo

1Semana

Difference to Space X from Tesla Satellite Phone

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financial_guru_1683@financial_guru_1683

1Semana

Sounds exciting, I'll have to take a closer look.

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fund_commander123@fund_commander123

1Semana

How do you see the competition from SpaceX?

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Klein-Anleger1@Klein-Anleger1

First tranche is set, I think it's actually quite good as a growth stock and the valuation is not astronomical 🙈
At what level would you ( @Aktienfox ) get in?

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Aktienfox@Aktienfox

@Klein-Anleger1 I think the application is okay - for me it's more about the development that I would like to observe :)

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Gomerdoc@Gomerdoc

This system also needs radio masts and mobile communications as access to the satellite.
In this respect, the investment expectation from the original posting or the business model outlined is technically incorrect and physically impossible with the current mobile phones without terrestrial radio masts.

In this respect:
It would be nice if the company were to earn a few solid dollars - then it would become interesting. Until then: a gamble, in my view.
Which you can certainly do if you are aware of it.

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Chandra@Chandra

@Gomerdoc What do you mean by "this system also needs radio masts and mobile communications to access the satellites"?
ASTS have gateways that connect the satellites to the earth. The information flow looks like this: Cell phone- Satellite - Gateway - Internet - Gateway- Satellite - Cell phone.
There is a video with the Vodafone CEO where she shows the UK gateway. One is enough for the whole country. There will be 4-5 gateways for the USA.

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Gomerdoc@Gomerdoc

@Chandra according to this paper here https://irp.cdn-website.com/1fadf91c/files/uploaded/AST_SpaceMobile_Investor_Presentation_May_2025-vF.pdf
This is indeed the way:
Cell phone via 5G directly to the satellite (which has to fly in a very low earth orbit, otherwise this is technically not possible at all due to the distance and the weak radio performance of the cell phones: low orbits equal a lot of space debris and higher risk of coming down, IMHO) then satellite > gateway > "terrestrial telecom network"

The only new thing is that they use the 5G network protocol to communicate with a satellite and thus (amazingly enough!) actually want to reach their low-flying satellite directly with an extraordinarily weak iPhone (my iPhone usually doesn't even make it to the next cell tower if there's a wall in between).

But as I understand it, and as they record it, it just doesn't work without the cooperation of a network provider/phone carrier on the ground.

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Chandra@Chandra

@Gomerdoc As I understand it, this is simply part of the business model. The providers want to get rid of the white spots on their maps and ASTS wants to get lots of customers in a simple way. Acquiring end customers is very time-consuming and expensive (advertising, sales).

And, of course, they have to use some kind of spectrum to communicate with the cell phones, which largely belongs to the telephone providers. That is why it is also important to mention that ASTS recently bought spectrum rights and could therefore also act partially independently of the providers.

I don't think any providers will be brought on board for their cooperation with the military. They will do this independently.

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