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Maximilian · 2025-01-20T15:41:02.162160Z

Hi Leute, wie steht ihr aktuell zu $NKE ? Denkt ihr die werden sich wieder erholen ? Ich überlege meine Position mit -16% zu verkaufen und in Novo $NOVO B umzuschichten. Es heißt ja, man soll die Verlierer verkaufen .. Habe allerdings Angst bei Novo ins fallende Messer zu greifen. Kopfsache eben.. Wo seht ihr mehr Chancen in Zukunft ? LG Max

B. T.@Aktienhauptmeister

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I don't have $NKE in my portfolio. But I think you have to be very patient with $NKE until it grows again. The last figures were disastrous. I assume that Nike will only move sideways for the time being. And I'm invested in $NOVO B. I already have a large position there, but I'm toying with the idea of increasing it further, because $NOVO B is one of the largest companies in Europe and is quite cheaply valued. I think the sell-off is too exaggerated despite the good results. At the moment I think $NOVO B is definitely more attractive and has more potential than $NKE

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DerMartin@DerMartin

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@Aktienhauptmeister I also find them attractive in principle, but how do you determine that they are "favorably" valued? In my opinion, this is not really the case.

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B. T.@Aktienhauptmeister

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@DerMartin Average P/E ratios in recent years have been well over 30, recently only below 30.
The margins at $NOVO B are intact, growth continues in the 2-digit range.
The exaggerated sell-off was only due to study results for weight loss drugs. The bottom line is that they have more in the pipeline, not just these weight loss drugs. But that's just my opinion 🤷🏼‍♂️✌️

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Ruben Schoff@Sand

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@Aktienhauptmeister Nike will perform similarly to Adidas...back then at 90 then in 1-2 years again at 250...Nike will also come back. Novo still too expensive from my point of view, at 55 euros I see a great opportunity otherwise not if it rises again now

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Tenbagger2024@Tenbagger2024

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I think you have to be patient with nike. Elliott Hill also needs some time to set a new course.

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Maximilian@Max095

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@Tenbagger2024 You're right.

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Michael@Neverloosemoney

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I have both in the depot

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René Janßen@RoncoPalonco

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I also have both in my portfolio, $NKE at -26%, $NOVO B still at plus 2%, but I find it more attractive to add here

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Maximilian@Max095

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@RoncoPalonco Thanks for your feedback. Would you sell Nike for it?

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Sebastian B.@Baisse-Jumper

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@Max095 I have now decided to sell $NKE and take a first larger tranche at $NOVO B instead. I also believe that Nike will tend not to run away. In the long term, it's good to have both in your portfolio. However, as I am short of free capital at the moment and I believe that Novo Nordisk will recover more quickly, I am now making the switch. The current sell-off is completely exaggerated and fundamentally completely unwarranted.

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Sebastian B.@Baisse-Jumper

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Funny, that's exactly what I'm thinking right now. I'm only a good 6% ahead at $NKE. At the moment, however, I'm still expecting more downside at $NOVO B. So wait and see.

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aminemeskni@Aminmeskini

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I would have done the same ☺️

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Aktienmaurer👷‍♂️📈🦍@Aktienmaurer

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I am invested in $NOVO B and Nike. Just look at Starbucks as an example. I believe that Nike will see a similar development.
At Novo, the price for Wegovy in the USA is to be renegotiated.
Nike produces predominantly outside the USA, which means that tariffs would hit Nike harder.
These are the risks I see.

But I wouldn't sell Nike at that level.

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Maximilian@Max095

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@Aktienmaurer Thanks for your assessment! :)

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TaxesAreTheft@TaxesAreTheft

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Why do you find Novo interesting, what is your thesis?

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Sebastian B.@Baisse-Jumper

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@TaxesAreTheft More and more people are becoming overweight or suffering from diabetes. There is absolutely no discernible trend in the opposite direction, but rather, as I said, an expansion. $NOVO B has been an established player for years, the global market leader in insulin and is also doing well in the weight loss business. With a growing world population, there will hardly be a shortage of customers. For me, it is therefore a success story with no end in sight.

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TaxesAreTheft@TaxesAreTheft

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@Baisse-Jumper But you already know what the pipeline looks like and that the Ozempic patent, which accounts for 40% of sales, will be gone by the end of 2025, which will ensure that it is taken up by a bunch of generics and that there are now many more players in the glp-1 game. There are no MOATs in the pharmaceutical industry, the "leading position" only lasts as long as the patent.

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Sebastian B.@Baisse-Jumper

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@TaxesAreTheft But you do know that Novo Nordisk was already doing well before all the weight loss hype? They are still the global market leader in diabetes and the successor to Ozempic, which has now "disappointed" in a study, will be launched in 2026 and will also contribute to sales. It is also not the case that there is only room for one player in the market. I believe that many people are reducing $NOVO B to the sales injection and failing to recognize that the company has much more in the pipeline.

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TaxesAreTheft@TaxesAreTheft

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@Baisse-Jumper As I said, Ozempic accounts for 40% of sales, so that is very relevant. Novo is very likely to bring out a new blockbuster, I assume. The problem is the insurers and the growing competition, especially from 2026/27 the generics. Say the Novo marketshare was 50% (Lily has the other 50%), due to patent expiry and generics the whole thing shrinks to 25-30%, meaning even if the successor product is as good as Ozempic it won't reach the same level of sales. In addition, the insurance companies will most likely only pay the generics, as they are the cheapest. This would not be a problem if Novo had a PE of 10-15. The bull case for Novo is not the pipeline or any new drug but the fact that Novo has almost 17 billion in PPE for Ozempic and that they hope no one else can make it effectively.

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