The fuel prices of Petrobras $PETR3 (-2,65 %)
$PETR4 (-1,3 %) have come back into the spotlight in light of the global drop in oil prices. Since January 20 - the day Donald Trump took office in the United States - the price of Brent crude oil has fallen by 12.79%. The decline is due to several factors, including the resumption of supplies by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), the possible easing of sanctions against Russia and concerns over trade disputes with the US.
Felipe Perez, an analyst at S&P, believes the fall in Brent is surprising, as geopolitical tensions usually drive prices higher. "The current situation is somewhat counterintuitive. Normally you would expect prices to rise when there is geopolitical tension," he said. Perez believes lower Brent prices could become a problem in the US as President Trump pushes to increase domestic oil production - one of the main themes of his campaign. Increased supply would likely drive prices down further.
Brent crude oil closed at $68.98 per barrel on Thursday (06/03/2025), up 0.12% on the previous day. On Wednesday, the price stood at $ 68.90, close to the low of September 10, 2024 ($ 68.83).
According to Santander, the recent correction in Brent prices reflects an imbalance between supply and demand. The bank expects an oil surplus from the second quarter onwards as OPEC members gradually resume production while demand in non-OPEC countries increases. Santander expects the Brent price to stabilize at $70 per barrel in the medium term.
Citi, which sees US pressure on OPEC as a key factor, forecasts Brent at around $60 a barrel by the end of 2025. "Although OPEC has emphasized that production increases can be paused or reversed depending on market conditions, an increase in production due to US pressure - rather than an actual oil shortage - could destabilize prices more," Citi said. The bank also pointed out that President Trump is trying to lower energy prices to ease inflationary pressures, and that he may see an increase in oil supply as an opportunity to achieve this goal.
In Brazil, global oil market dynamics have drawn attention to Petrobras' pricing policy. Since the introduction of a new pricing strategy in May 2023, the state-owned company has endeavored to protect domestic consumers from international price fluctuations. In 2024, Petrobras made only one price adjustment - a reduction in petrol prices in July - and none for diesel. In 2025, the company increased diesel prices by R$ 0.22 per liter on January 31.
As Brent crude oil prices have fallen in recent weeks, Petrobras' fuel prices have risen above the import parity price (PPI). According to StoneX, Petrobras' gasoline price is R$0.12 per liter (4.2%) higher than the Gulf Coast average, while diesel is R$0.23 per liter (6.3%) higher.
ABICOM estimates that Petrobras' gasoline price is R$0.16 per liter (5%) higher than the PPI, while diesel is R$0.15 per liter (4%) more expensive.
Ilan Arbetman, analyst at Ativa Investimentos, believes that although Petrobras is likely to cut prices faster than raise them, the company could wait to make adjustments. "Petrobras management wants to avoid external volatility being transferred to domestic prices. The price difference between Petrobras and the international markets is likely to widen in the coming days. It is too early to say whether they will announce any changes, but this will be an important issue in the coming days. We will continue to monitor the situation," he said.