TSMC Q4'24 Earnings Highlights

$TSM (+1,43 %)
$2330

• Revenue: $26.24B (Est. $25.83B) ; +39% YoY
• Net Income: $11.31B (Est. $11.17B) ; +57% YoY
• Gross Margin: 59.0% (Est. 58.5%) ; +53% YoY
• Oper. Margin: 49.0% (Est. 48.1%)
• FY25 CapEx: $38B - $42B (Est. $35.15B)
• FY24 CapEx: $29.76B (Est. ~$29.5B)

Q1'25 Guidance:

• Revenue: $25B - $25.8B (Est. $24.43B)
• Gross Margin: 57% - 59%
• Operating Margin: 46.5% - 48.5% (Est. 46.4%)
• Management expects a ~5.5% sequential revenue drop (smartphone seasonality) but sustained robust AI demand.

Long-Term Revenue CAGR: ~20% (2024-2028)

• AI-related revenue was mid-teens percent of total in 2024 and is expected to double in 2025, with a ~40% CAGR for AI accelerators through 2029.
• AI & HPC cited as main growth engines
• Smartphone & PC segments also gain from higher silicon content

Q4 Process & Segment Details:

• Wafer Shipments: 3.418M; UP +15.6% YoY
• ASP per wafer: ~$6,850 (FY basis); UP +19% YoY
• Advanced Technologies (7nm & below): 74% of total wafer revenue (vs. 69% in Q3)
• 3nm: 26% (vs. 20% in Q3)
• 5nm: 34% (vs. 32% in Q3)
• 7nm: 14% (vs. 17% in Q3)

Q4 revenue by product platform

• HPC (incl. AI): 53% (vs. 51% in Q3) - HPC up +69% YoY
• Smartphone: 35% (vs. 34% in Q3)
• IoT: 5%
• Automotive: 4%
• Consumer Electronics: 1%
• Others: 2%

Q4 Revenue by Geography

• North America: 75% (vs. 71% in Q3)
• China: 9%
• Asia Pacific (ex-China): 9%
• Japan: 4%
• EMEA: 3%

Capital Expenditure:

• FY24 CapEx: $29.76B (Est. ~$29.5B)

- ~70% allocated to advanced nodes (N3, N2)

- ~10-20% for specialty tech & non-wafer (e.g., advanced packaging, mask)

• Sees FY25 CapEx: $38B - $42B (Est. $35.15B)

- "Higher than 2024" to fund advanced nodes (N3, N2) & packaging expansions

- Overseas fabs contribute to increased spending

Advanced Packaging (CoWoS, SoIC):

• ~8% of revenue in 2024; expected to exceed 10% in 2025
• "Any rumors about CoWoS order cuts are simply not true. We continue to increase capacity."

Comment from the management:

Sales drivers and overall performance in the 4th quarter

• "We attribute our sales performance in the fourth quarter to strong demand for 3 nm and 5 nm process technologies."
• "Advanced technologies (7nm and below) accounted for 74% of total wafer sales compared to 69% in the third quarter."

Full year 2024 and future outlook

• "TSMC expects 2025 to be another strong growth year, with revenue growth of over 20% in US dollar terms."
• "Over the next five years (from 2024), we expect a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 20%, driven primarily by AI-related demand and the continued growth of silicon content in smartphones and PCs."

• "In 2024, AI-related revenue was a mid-double-digit percentage of TSMC's total revenue. It is expected to double by 2025 as the strong increase in AI demand continues."

• "We expect a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 40% for AI accelerator revenue over the next five years (2025-2029). This is an important driver for future growth."

AI demand, HPC and HBM

• "Memory will grow overall, but HBM (High-Bandwidth Memory) will grow very fast."

• "Demand for AI has more than tripled at TSMC in the last year and we expect it to more than double again in 2025."

• "We continue to see a robust demand profile in AI and can only hope that we can get enough teams and capacity together to support this growth."

Comment on rumors and expansion abroad

• "Rumors about capacity cuts at CoWoS are just rumors - we are continuing to expand our capacity. There are no plans to cut orders."

• "Factories abroad, including in the US and Japan, have an annual gross margin dilution effect of 2-3%, mainly due to smaller scale and higher supply chain costs. We expect this 2-3% margin effect to continue over the next five years."

• "Taiwan will always be the first to ramp up new nodes due to its proximity to our R&D labs (Hsinchu). Other factories abroad will follow depending on customer demand and government support."

• "Our factory in Arizona has started mass production of N4. The second factory is on schedule to produce N3 or N2 technology. Japan's second factory is planned for 2025 and Europe's first factory is also on schedule."

Non-AI markets and silicon content

• "Smartphones are still experiencing low single-digit growth, but the trend towards higher silicon content (AI features, advanced functions) will drive further growth and shorten replacement cycles."

• "PC is similar: overall unit growth is modest, but AI features in PCs are increasing, leading to advanced nodes and higher ASP."

Export controls and demand from China

• "We believe the new US export rules are manageable. We will apply for special licenses for customers as needed, especially in the automotive, industrial or other non-AI use cases."

• "China remains an important market, but currently only accounts for around 9-10% of sales. We continue to work within the regulatory framework."

Silicon photonics and packaging

• "We've had some technical success with silicon photonics, but we probably won't reach significant volumes for another year to a year and a half."

• "Advanced packaging accounted for over 8% of sales in 2024 and is expected to be over 10% in 2025. Our margins for advanced packaging are still slightly below the company average, but are improving."

• "The demand for CoWoS is extremely high for HPC and AI. Other applications (such as smartphones or PCs) may adopt CoWoS in the future, but for now the focus is on AI."

HBM, partnerships and supply chain

• "We are working with all memory manufacturers to provide advanced logic for HBM controllers. It could be another 1.5 years before significant product production from HBM-related logic makes a big revenue contribution."

• "We do not see TSMC as a bottleneck for AI demand. We are expanding capacity for advanced packaging (CoWoS) as quickly as possible and working with memory partners to align capacity."

Margins & pricing strategy

• "We operate in a capital-intensive business and therefore need a healthy gross margin to continue investing in advanced technologies. Pricing must reflect this."

• "We are seeing several cost headwinds including N3 ramps, N2 R&D, conversions from N5 to N3, inflationary pressures and higher costs overseas. We remain confident that we will achieve a gross margin of ~53% or more in the long term."

• "For wafers produced in the US, we are discussing with customers how they will bear the higher costs. Customers understand that the cost structure is different."

Further questions and answers for CEO/CFO

• "We don't comment on competitors' IDMs, we just say that they are important customers. This business is important to us."

• "AI includes CPUs, GPUs, ASICs and HBM logic for HPC/data centers. Edge AI could create 5-10% more chip area in smartphones/PCs, further driving the adoption of advanced nodes."

• "Currently, SoIC is mainly used in AI applications, but we expect more applications in the future."

• "We expect continued strong growth in the AI sector in 2026, although we have not yet made a specific forecast. Our focus is on ensuring sufficient capacity."

• "We are focused on narrowing the cost gap between factories in the US and Japan, but realistically the scale will remain smaller than Taiwan for years to come."

Final note from the CEO

• "2025 will be another strong year. We expect a 20% increase in sales in US dollars, driven by AI and our advanced technologies. We are ramping 3nm and preparing for N2 and beyond to maintain TSMC's technology leadership."

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