1Año·

Hello everyone, I'm looking for input on CD Project Red.

I am currently analyzing $CDR (+0,8 %) and thinking about buying more. Do you have any spontaneous ideas and thoughts on the share? I would take up the input and publish my analysis here in a few days and would be happy to discuss it with you :)

8 Comentarios

Enrique@Dividenden_Monteur

1Año

The Witcher is dead, Henry Cavill should never have been abandoned.

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CashDividendGamer@CashDividendGamer

1Año

@Der_Dividenden_Monteur 🎶 Toss a coin to your witcher 🎶

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Phil@thesavagephil

1Año

The development of the new Witcher part will of course be closely monitored.
My guess is that the wave of euphoria will prompt some people to buy in due course.
Both positive and negative news will ensure that the share price moves in the right direction.

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Tom@FresherAlman

1Año

I think the witcher 4 will sell 30 million copies on release at 80€ each = 2.4 billion sales. Previous margins were about 60% with the own engine, since this time the unreal engine is used, I think the margin will be lower, if we assume 40%, 960 million profit remains from the release alone. Current market cap of cd projekt: 2.3 billion. everything is still a dream of the future, in the long term the investment will pay off I think. I am currently holding 200 shares at €25.80.

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T D.@T-Dax

1Año

@FresherAlman Despite my bullish sentiment, this is too ambitious in my opinion. I forecast release figures similar to Cyberpunk. Conservative. What's exciting is the sheer number of games that will be released in the next decade. 3x Witcher within about 6 years, 1x Cyberpunk 2 and 1x a new IP alongside other, smaller projects like Sirius or the Witcher 3 remake. In this respect, I don't think it's a bad thing if it doesn't reach 30 million sales at release. About half that would be great.

Regarding the margins... that's not true. There has never been a 60% margin in recent years. The highest margin was in 2020 with almost 54%. The average seems to be a little over 30%, which probably also has to do with the necessary bug-fixing of Cyberpunk. I also think that the margin will decrease. Conservatively, assuming that not everything goes smoothly with the new games either, maybe 23%.

Even with this, admittedly very cautious, outlook, I still think it is completely undervalued. What makes the share so attractive are the many releases from 2026 onwards.

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Zuitsdg@Zuitsdg

4Semana

@FresherAlman lol Cyberpunk had some of the highest hype of all time and reached 15mio at release.
I would also expect worst case 5mio, expectation 12mio, best case 20mio, but 30mio probably only over the next 5-10 years if the game does well.
The 80€ is also optimistic. I pre-ordered Witcher 3 including DLCs for 18€ in Poland. Of course the western markets have 60€+, and higher prices for the consoles (and costs for Sony and Microsoft) - but with the rest of the world, Eastern Europe, South America and Asia, I would estimate the average price at 30€ and thus 360mio sales.

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T D.@T-Dax

4Semana

@Zuitsdg the average price can be easily determined from the quarterly figures. 30€ is not realistic. I basically agree with you about the "worst case". By worst case, I mean the impact of the bug fiasco on sales figures after the immediate release. The immediate release was of course phenomenal.

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Zuitsdg@Zuitsdg

4Semana

@T-Dax Where can I find the sales figures for the quarter? I can only see the sales figures. And in addition to the games, expansions and older games are also sold.

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