Bin zwar nicht mehr in der Aktie aber Job ist Job. $D05 (-0,3 %)
1. Executive Summary:
- DBS Group reported record quarterly total income of SGD 5.91 billion, up 6% YoY, and record profit before tax of SGD 3.44 billion, slightly higher YoY.
- Net profit declined 2% YoY to SGD 2.90 billion due to a 15% global minimum tax but rose 10% QoQ.
- Strong business growth led by commercial book income, record fee income, treasury customer sales, and highest markets trading income in 12 quarters.
- Asset quality remained resilient with stable NPL ratio at 1.1% and specific provisions at 10 basis points of loans.
- The Board declared a total dividend of 75 cents per share, comprising 60 cents ordinary dividend and 15 cents capital return dividend.
- Management highlighted macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties, prudently strengthening general provisions by SGD 205 million and maintaining strong capital and liquidity positions.
2. Core Financial Performance (Income Statement Focus):
- Key Metrics (1Q25 vs 1Q24):
- Total income: SGD 5.91bn (+6%)
- Commercial book total income: SGD 5.54bn (+4%)
- Net interest income (NII): SGD 3.72bn (+2%)
- Markets trading income: SGD 363m (+48%)
- Expenses: SGD 2.21bn (+6%)
- Profit before allowances: SGD 3.69bn (+6%)
- Allowances: SGD 325m (>100%)
- Profit before tax: SGD 3.44bn (+1%)
- Net profit: SGD 2.90bn (-2%)
- EPS (basic and diluted): SGD 4.11 (down from 4.16 in 4Q24)
- QoQ changes:
- Net profit rose 10%
- Total income up 7%
- Expenses down 8%
- Specific allowances halved
- Margins:
- Group NIM declined 9 bps to 2.68% in commercial book due to lower interest rates, offset by balance sheet growth.
- Cost-income ratio stable at 37%.
- Non-GAAP Measures:
- General provisions (GP) of SGD 205m taken as a prudent buffer; allowance coverage ratio rose to 137%.
- Exceptional Items:
- Impact of 15% global minimum tax reduced net profit by 12%.
- Management explained margin pressure from lower interest rates but offset by balance sheet growth and strong fee income. Markets trading benefited from lower funding costs and volatility. Expenses included some non-recurring items in prior quarter.
3. Segment & Geographic Performance:
- Commercial book:
- Total income SGD 5.54bn (+4% YoY, +4% QoQ)
- NII rose 2% YoY but declined 1% QoQ on day-adjusted basis.
- Fee income rose 22% YoY to record SGD 1.28bn, driven by wealth management (+39%) and loan-related fees (+79%).
- Treasury customer sales up 32% QoQ to new high.
- Other non-interest income stable QoQ but down 12% YoY due to non-recurring items.
- Markets trading income:
- SGD 363m, highest in 12 quarters, up 48% YoY and more than doubled QoQ.
- Wealth management:
- Record quarterly income with AUM at SGD 432bn, up SGD 6bn QoQ.
- Net new money for private bank segment about SGD 3bn; total wealth segments combined show stronger growth.
- Loans:
- Gross loans up 2% QoQ to SGD 435bn; non-trade corporate loans up 3%.
- Trade loans down 1%; consumer loans stable.
- Deposits:
- Up 3% QoQ to SGD 576bn, led by CASA inflows; CASA ratio improved to 53%.
- Management commentary highlighted broad-based growth led by wealth management and commercial banking, with resilient asset quality and cautious credit stance.
4. Balance Sheet Analysis:
- Key components (as at 31 Mar 2025):
- Customer loans: SGD 435bn (+2% QoQ)
- Customer deposits: SGD 576bn (+3% QoQ)
- Total assets: SGD 841bn
- Total liabilities: SGD 772bn
- Shareholders' equity: SGD 69bn
- Asset quality:
- NPL ratio stable at 1.1%
- Non-performing assets declined 3% QoQ to SGD 4.86bn
- Specific allowances at 10 bps of loans (SGD 120m)
- General provisions increased by SGD 205m to SGD 4.16bn; allowance coverage ratio 137%, or 230% including collateral.
- Capital ratios:
- Transitional CET1 ratio 17.4%, fully phased-in 15.2%
- Leverage ratio 6.5%, well above regulatory minimum.
- Liquidity:
- Liquidity coverage ratio 145%
- Net stable funding ratio 115%
- Management noted strong capital and liquidity positions, prudent allowance build in light of macroeconomic risks, and stable asset quality.
5. Cash Flow Statement Analysis:
- Specific cash flow details were not explicitly disclosed in the documents.
- Management commentary indicated capital allocation priorities including dividends and share buybacks.
- The Board declared a total dividend of SGD 0.75 per share for 1Q25, comprising SGD 0.60 ordinary dividend and SGD 0.15 capital return dividend.
- Share buyback program of SGD 3bn ongoing over 2-3 years.
- Capital management aims to maintain ROE between 15-17%, with capital returns funded from reserves and earnings.
- Management emphasized prudent capital deployment with flexibility for M&A within organic capital generation.
- Investments in technology and wealth management platforms highlighted as strategic capital uses.
- No detailed free cash flow or investing/financing cash flow line items were provided.
6. Key Ratios & Profitability Metrics:
- Return on Equity (ROE): 17.3% (1Q25)
- Return on Assets (ROA): 1.42% (1Q25)
- Net Interest Margin (NIM): 2.12% group, 2.68% commercial book
- Cost-to-Income Ratio: 37%
- Allowance coverage ratio: 137% (230% including collateral)
- Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio: 17.4% transitional, 15.2% fully phased-in
- Leverage ratio: 6.5%
- Interest coverage ratio and ROIC not explicitly disclosed.
- Management noted stable margins despite pressure from lower interest rates, offset by balance sheet growth and fee income.
- Valuation multiples or peer comparisons were not mentioned.
7. Management Commentary & Strategic Discussion:
- Strategic priorities include growing wealth management, digital transformation, and maintaining strong capital and liquidity.
- Management emphasized prudence in credit provisioning amid macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties, including trade tensions and tariff risks.
- Focus on structural growth in wealth management across all segments (Private Bank, Treasures Private Client, Treasures).
- Active management of loan portfolio quality, with cautious growth in non-trade corporate loans and SME exposure.
- Capital allocation priorities include dividends, share buybacks, and investments in technology such as generative AI and wealth management platforms.
- Management highlighted diversification of trade currencies and reserve assets to prepare clients for geopolitical risks and alternative payment pathways.
- M&A strategy is disciplined, focusing on strategic fit, price, and integration capability, with preference for forward-looking deals.
- Market environment is uncertain; management remains nimble to capture opportunities while managing risks.
8. Guidance & Future Outlook:
- 2025 outlook:
- Group net interest income expected to be slightly above 2024 levels despite three rate cuts.
- Lower Group NIM expected, offset by balance sheet growth.
- Markets trading income to benefit from lower funding costs.
- Funding to be deployed into non-loan assets if loan demand weakens.
- Commercial book non-interest income growth expected mid- to high-single digits.
- Cost-income ratio targeted in low-40% range.
- Specific provisions assumed to normalize to 17-20 bps; general provisions provide buffer.
- Net profit expected below 2024 levels mainly due to 15% global minimum tax.
- Management noted risks from heightened uncertainty and tariff impacts.
- Analyst Q&A highlighted cautious outlook on loan growth in second half, potential volatility in wealth fees depending on market conditions, and prudent provisioning approach.
- Capital management guidance includes continuation of dividend and share buyback programs with flexibility for M&A within organic capital generation.
- No specific numeric guidance ranges for revenue or EPS were provided beyond qualitative statements.
9. Risk Factors & Opportunities:
- Key risks:
- Macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties including trade tensions, tariff disruptions, and global growth slowdown.
- Interest rate uncertainty and weaker market sentiment.
- Credit stresses, particularly in trade-related sectors and SME exposure.
- Potential second-order impacts on consumer spending and investment.
- Opportunities:
- Trade shifts creating new growth corridors and sectors.
- Continued wealth inflows and trading opportunities.
- Diversification of trade currencies and reserve assets.
- Investment in new technologies such as AI, generative AI, and digital payment pathways.
- Management emphasized preparedness for extreme scenarios including black swan events.
- No explicit SWOT analysis provided.
10. Key Takeaways (Analyst Perspective):
Five Positive Highlights:
1. Record quarterly total income and profit before tax driven by broad-based business growth.
2. Strong wealth management performance with record fee income and AUM at new highs.
3. Resilient asset quality with stable NPL ratio and prudent provisioning.
4. Robust capital and liquidity positions with CET1 ratio well above regulatory minimum.
5. Effective capital management with dividend increase and ongoing share buyback program.
Five Areas of Concern:
1. Net profit declined 2% YoY due to impact of 15% global minimum tax.
2. Net interest margin pressure from lower interest rates despite balance sheet growth.
3. Increased general provisions reflecting heightened macroeconomic and geopolitical risks.
4. Uncertainty in loan growth outlook, particularly in second half due to tariff and market volatility.
5. Potential volatility in wealth management fees and investment banking deal activity dependent on market conditions.