8Lun·

Who is bullish on the Airbnb money printing machine?

Airbnb $ABNB (+0 %) is now quietly and secretly generating 4.5 billion US dollars in operating cash flow per year - and the trend rising.

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The free cash flow margin has also passed the 40% mark exceeded. This feat accomplish only a few companiese.g. Visa $V (+0,4 %) / Mastercard $MA (+1,21 %) , MSCI $MSCI (+1,92 %) and Nvidia $NVDA (-3,26 %) .

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The sales growth in the core business is slowing down, but is still at 12% per year - despite unspeakable and often false headlines in the media about regulation and competition.

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The management plans to increase sales growth again accelerate: off we go from May with the large-scale launch of "Experiences" and other services for guests and hosts.


"Starting in 2025, each year we will launch 1-3 new businesses that could eventually generate over a billion dollars in revenue per year (starting with travel and then moving away from the core); they are not gonna be capital intensive and they all gonna be similar margin to the current business because we are probably going to have a similar take rate." (CEO in October 2024).


The following are conceivable in the long term

  • Experiences / activities (when traveling or in the home town)
  • Advertising on the platform
  • Concierge services
  • Flights / rentals (cars, boats)
  • Loyalty program (monthly subscription for frequent travelers with comprehensive benefits, discounts, exclusive accommodation, premium customer service, access to gyms, transport, food deliveries)
  • Community / Social+ (networking with other local travelers, e.g. for restaurant or concert visits)
  • Services for hosts (networking with craftsmen, designers, cleaning staff)
  • ... and much more


Airbnb is valued with a forward PE of 24.2 (FY26) and a forward P/OCF of 15.3 (FY26) both of which are below the long-term averages.


Airbnb is rarely priced close to or below the €100 mark. $ABNB (+0 %) is rarely available.


Do you already have Airbnb $ABNB (+0 %) already in your portfolio?

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35 Comentarios

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I bought them at Dip now - a bargain at under €100.
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@lordprettylambo Good deal!
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8Lun
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@Memo0606 Risk-reward <€100 is top in my view
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8Lun
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@Memo0606 I bought them earlier this week for <€100
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Such low performers definitely do not flow into my portfolio.
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@market_expert_gbtws You call >50% CAGR in operating cash flow and >40% free cash flow margin low-performers?
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I'm not thrilled...
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@TechNav Why not?
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@thewolfofallstreetz P/E and forward P/E are almost at 30. At a price of 89$ this would be rather a bargain.
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@TechNav Don't be too greedy... These are the forward numbers for FY26. Would look at cash flow rather than earnings for Airbnb. P/S is also a good indicator, also below long term average, but logical as growth is slowing. For me a no-brainer investment if they get the top line growing faster again. In addition, there is a lot of cash on the side and good buybacks are possible from the cash flow, which is good for the free cash flow per share.
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Would be a consideration to go in there hmhm
I have hardly looked into it, but at least in Europe voices are being raised to regulate it, because residents are complaining and there is a shortage of housing in some places.
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Do you think the share is worth buying at €100?
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7Lun
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@Memo0606 think the share has potential for Tenbagger
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@Max095 I see the fair value at around €100. How do I arrive at this? Assumption: doubling of the core business (from $10.5 bn to $21.5 bn) in the next 10 years as well as the development of new business areas that together generate at least $4 bn in sales, e.g. Experiences, advertising and a loyalty program. This means total sales growth of around 9% per year. On top of that, a 30% FCF margin, share buybacks of 2% per year (through strong cash flow), terminal growth of 2% and a discount rate of 12%. Depending on the FCF multiple, 2-3x in 10 years is possible. That is ok, but not exceptional. The investment case will become interesting if Airbnb manages to accelerate revenue growth through new business areas. But they have to prove that first.
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7Lun
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@Memo0606 If they exceed the assumptions on growth, FCF margin, buybacks, etc. from above, then the fair value is well above €100 and thus offers more upside than a 2-3x in 10 years. That is the bet. Or you wait until they fall to the level of €70-80 from 2022 to have an upside to the current level - questionable whether it will come to that. In the current market environment, there are a few others that look attractive, e.g. BigTech. That's why I think Airbnb is interesting, but if Amazon, Meta, Google & Co. become cheap, it's hard to say no, as it's less risky.
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8Lun
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@Memo0606 Massively overvalued after IPO at >35 p/s, now growing into the valuation thanks to a strong operating performance - hence the sideways movement. Growth in the core business has slowed recently, which should be kept in mind. If they can accelerate sales growth (core business + new services) again, there is upside potential for the share.
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@thewolfofallstreetz since 2020 almost -11%.. ??
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@JuppDupp Yeah, so what? Was way overvalued back then and needed to grow into its valuation.
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8Lun
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@Memo0606 at least not as an investment
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8Lun
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8Lun
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@Memo0606 I like their margins, but not their growth. I am looking for both high company quality and growth.
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