14 quality companies that are currently trading below their fair value based on my DCF models

The W. · 2025-03-12T19:44:58.583555Z

Nvidia $NVDA Novo Nordisk $NOVO B Microsoft $MSFT ASML $ASML Intuit $INTU Airbnb $ABNB Amazon $AMZN MSCI $MSCI S&P Global $SPGI LVMH $MC Nike $NKE Hims & Hers $HIMS AMD $AMD The Trade Desk $TTD Do you see it similarly? Are you currently holding one of these shares?

Chris@1Chrischi1

1Lun

also 8 of them in the depot.
$NOVO B added today.
$MSFT and $ASML will follow in the days to come. ☺️

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The W.@thewolfofallstreetz

1Lun

@1Chrischi1 ASML looks the most interesting to me purely from a valuation perspective. I expected the lower end of the guidance for 2030 and conservative assumptions. Currently very fairly valued with decent upside. But of course, it can go even lower from the current level. Microsoft would be the "safer" option, e.g. more diversified revenue streams, no cyclicality, etc.

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B. T.@Aktienhauptmeister

1Lun

$INTU & $SPGI opened the first positions
$NVDA topped up
$AMZN topped up
$MSFT waits...
$MSCI waits...
$AMD still undecided

And with you ?

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The W.@thewolfofallstreetz

1Lun

@Aktienhauptmeister Top companies! I buy the big tech names via ETF (LS FAANG+ ETP), as they have all corrected properly. I bought a small tranche of Hims & Hers and AMD. I also have a starter position in Trade Desk, which is falling ungodly. I am therefore remaining cautious here. I don't want to have too many positions (max. 10), so I want to remain selective.

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B. T.@Aktienhauptmeister

1Lun

@thewolfofallstreetz I am also keeping a very close eye on $ISRG at the moment. It has also been on my watchlist for a long time, an absolute long-term runner. What do you think about $ISRG?

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The W.@thewolfofallstreetz

1Lun

@Aktienhauptmeister I also have them on my watchlist, basically super interesting. However, they haven't fallen enough for me yet - there are even more attractive entries with other companies at the moment.

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B. T.@Aktienhauptmeister

1Lun

@thewolfofallstreetz I agree 💪 should still fall a good 15-20%, but is flying under the radar at the moment because the focus is more on falling tech stocks. Just wanted to mention it in passing 😬 and your contributions are great by the way ✌️

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The W.@thewolfofallstreetz

1Lun

@Aktienhauptmeister Absolutely, I would look very closely at 20% or more. In the last 5 years they have had a 50% drawdown. It's a top company, but in the end you can't pay too much, otherwise you won't get a good return despite being a top company.

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JCM@TheStoic

1Lun

How do you calculate your DCF models? Based on my DCF calculations, most of the stocks in the list are not fairly valued and are far from being undervalued.

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Patrick ₿ateman@fastlane

1Lun

@TheStoic Stands and falls with the selected perpetual growth rate

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The W.@thewolfofallstreetz

1Lun

@fastlane Of course, in the end it is a model and will never be right. Nevertheless, it's a good exercise to get a feel for the valuation level and a fair price.

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The W.@thewolfofallstreetz

1Lun

@TheStoic With MSCI, for example, I made the following assumptions for the next 10 years: 8% sales growth, 2.5% buybacks, 50% FCF margin, 2% terminal growth, 8% discount rate. This results in around 11% FCF per share growth per year, a fair value of USD 570 and 4% upside to the current share price. So a further setback would probably be a top opportunity. The long-standing CEO also made insider purchases at higher prices in December and February, which is a bonus point.

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JCM@TheStoic

1Lun

@thewolfofallstreetz Thank you for your answer

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The W.@thewolfofallstreetz

1Lun

@TheStoic What assumptions did you use?

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JCM@TheStoic

1Lun

@thewolfofallstreetz I use the DCF model from FocusGuru and adjust the values individually according to the companies

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Patschke6686@Patschke6686

1Lun

I am currently considering buying Intuit. FICO is currently also on my list to add here as well

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The W.@thewolfofallstreetz

1Lun

@Patschke6686 I look at them too, but they just don't come down.

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Jonathan@ProTox

1Lun

I have half of them in the depot 😅🚀

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Memo0606@Memo0606

1Lun

@ProTox opinion on $MSCI?

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Jonathan@ProTox

1Lun

@Memo0606 I haven't really looked at it yet, so I can't form an opinion yet

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GeldGenie@GeldGenie

1Lun

"Your" DCF models? I'm curious about that.

Please elaborate 😊

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The W.@thewolfofallstreetz

1Lun

@GeldGenie With MSCI, for example, I made the following assumptions for the next 10 years: 8% sales growth, 2.5% buybacks, 50% FCF margin, 2% terminal growth, 8% discount rate. This results in around 11% FCF per share growth per year, a fair value of USD 570 and 4% upside to the current share price. So a further setback would probably be a top opportunity. The long-standing CEO also made insider purchases at higher prices in December and February, which is a bonus point.

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Micha@MoneyMonkey1978

1Lun

I have 8 of these shares in my portfolio and also think that they will rise again in the long term despite the current uncertainty in the USA.

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The W.@thewolfofallstreetz

1Lun

@MoneyMonkey1978 This list may also help: https://getqu.in/1vJE6S/

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Memo0606@Memo0606

1Lun

great contribution
i want to buy more $MSCI but am still hesitating
I don't know if it will go down any further...
what do you think? would you wait to buy more or buy now?

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m0rten@m0rten

1Lun

@Memo0606 Are currently at a nice support zone, but could also go one level lower. Better to wait for the bottom to form first

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Memo0606@Memo0606

1Lun

@m0rten you're right :)
are you also interested in buying msci inc?

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m0rten@m0rten

1Lun

@Memo0606 My buy-in is actually at 450€:) But I would like to add one more share

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Memo0606@Memo0606

1Lun

@m0rten mine is about where the price is now
but i have too few financial stocks in my portfolio which is why i'm considering buying so much more

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The W.@thewolfofallstreetz

1Lun

@Memo0606 @m0rten is right, of course: it could go even lower. 450€ is a top buy-in. I made the following assumptions for the next 10 years: 8% sales growth, 2.5% buybacks, 50% FCF margin, 2% terminal growth, 8% discount rate. This results in around 11% FCF per share growth per year, a fair value of USD 570 and 4% upside to the current share price. So a further setback would probably be a top opportunity. The long-standing CEO also made insider purchases at higher prices in December and February, which is a bonus point.

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Memo0606@Memo0606

1Lun

@thewolfofallstreetz at how many dollars specifically would you get in on msci?

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The W.@thewolfofallstreetz

1Lun

@Memo0606 I already have the first tranche in. When it approaches €450, I'll add more. I'm still keeping a third tranche open.

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Memo0606@Memo0606

1Lun

@thewolfofallstreetz let's see if it falls to 450€
that would be another 10% down

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The W.@thewolfofallstreetz

1Lun

@Memo0606 Hard to imagine, but anything is possible. The biggest drawdown in the last 5 years was 44%, currently we are at 19%. But it could just as well have been the bottom, so I'm going in with tranches.

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Memo0606@Memo0606

1Lun

@thewolfofallstreetz yes my buy in is currently at today's level...
i don't know whether i should wait or buy more now

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