One Week Up, One Week Down – The Cycle of These Two Heavyweights
The GLP-1 saga is playing out like a weekly soap opera. Just a few weeks ago, Eli Lilly tanked after the first batch of data on its weight-loss pill, came in weaker than expected compared to Novo Nordisk’s oral semaglutide. News headlines screamed: “Novo wins this round,” and investors rotated straight into the, at that point almost burnt down, Danish camp.
Fast-forward to yesterday and the tables flipped. Lilly’s latest Phase 3 readout in obese patients with type 2 diabetes hit all the marks – over 10% average weight loss, improved blood sugar, and a safety profile consistent with injectables. A pill, once a day, no needles. Wall Street loved it, the stock surged, and Novo slipped a couple of percent in sympathy. That’s been the rhythm all summer: one week up, one week down, depending on the news cycle.
Step back though, and it’s not really Lilly vs. Novo. It’s Lilly and Novo vs. the rest of the pharma world. Together they’re shaping a $150 billion obesity market that no outsider seems to be able to crack. Novo’s Wegovy and Ozempic remain the gold standard, while both are continuing to push hard on injectables and now pills. Each headline just shifts which ticker traders decide to crown “winner of the week,” but long-term both companies are entrenched.
The contrast was brutal for Viking Therapeutics. The “up-and-coming” challenger saw its stock collapse nearly 40% after mixed Phase 2 results on its oral GLP-1/GIP candidate. Too many side-effect concerns, not enough differentiation, and – conveniently – right before Lilly reminded everyone what late-stage data is supposed to look like. Reality check: this is a two-horse race.
Personally, I own both Lilly and Novo. Obesity is a long-term trend, not a fad. Demand is global, the science is strong, and payers will eventually adapt. The week-to-week swings are just noise. Yesterday Lilly had its moment, next week it could be Novo again. Either way, the scoreboard in ten years will show both of them winning, and I am taking the discounts.
