Why prices do not always reflect reality
What is happening at Adobe right now reveals a fundamental psychological problem of the Börse. If you look at the share price development, you inevitably get the feeling that something is wrong with the company.
After all, if everything was fine, the share price would rise, wouldn't it?
But this is a fallacy. It happens all the time on the stock market that prices and fundamental reality drift apart. In many cases, this discrepancy is resolved within a few months, in other cases it takes much longer.
But in the end, the same thing always happens: the price follows the fundamentals.
Reality can be ignored for a long time, but not forever - and the longer the phase of ignorance lasts, the more impulsive the subsequent upward trend. The number of examples that prove this is almost endless
Adobe delivers records
Adobe set new records at all levels last year. Sales increased by 13 % to USD 47.87 per share, profit by 15 % to USD 18.42 and free cash flow by 16 % to USD 17.51 per share.
Since then, the positive development has continued consistently. In the first quarter, expectations were consistently exceeded and the earnings expectations for 2025 of USD 20.20 - 20.50 per share were confirmed.
The share price slumped in response.
In the second quarter, earnings of USD 5.06 per share were well above expectations of USD 4.98. With sales of USD 5.87 billion, analysts' estimates of USD 5.80 billion were also exceeded. For the year as a whole, this corresponds to an 11% increase in sales and a 13% jump in profits.
As a result, the earnings forecast was raised from USD 20.20 - 20.50 to USD 20.50 - 20.70 per share.
The Adobe share price fell further as a result
Has the starting signal been given?
On September 11, the company presented its figures for the third quarter and the share did indeed react positively. Vorbörslich Adobe is trading up 4.41 % at USD 366.
At USD 5.31 per share, Q3 earnings again exceeded expectations of USD 5.16. With sales of USD 5.99 billion, analysts' estimates of USD 5.90 billion were also exceeded.
For the year as a whole, this corresponds to an 11% increase in sales and a 14% jump in profits.
In addition to organic growth, the ongoing share buybacks also contributed to this - compared to the previous year, the number of outstanding shares fell from 448 to 424 million.
The order backlog (RPO, Remaining Performance Obligations), on the other hand, increased from USD 18.14 billion to USD 20.44 billion.
The signs therefore continue to point to growth.
AI loser or AI winner?
Products that include AI functions now account for almost a quarter of sales. Annualized sales in this area now exceed USD 5 billion.
Adobe has therefore raised its revenue forecast for the current financial year from USD 23.5 - 23.6 billion to USD 23.65 - 23.70 billion and its earnings expectations from USD 20.50 - 20.70 to USD 20.80 - 20.85 per share.
Over the year as a whole, this would correspond to a jump in earnings of around 13%.
This gives Adobe a forward P/E of 17.6, which is currently a valuation that is normally assigned to companies with low single-digit growth rates.
If the bears' disruption fantasies do not materialize, there is corresponding upside potential. Over the last five years, the P/E has averaged 38
Adobe share: Chart from 12.09.2025, price: USD 366.00 - symbol: ADBE | Source: TWS
Adobe could have formed a double bottom that offers upside potential to USD 382. Above this, there would be a Kaufsignal with possible price targets at USD 422 and USD 440.
If this hurdle can also be overcome, this would enable medium-term price gains up to USD 500 - 512.
If, on the other hand, the share price falls below USD 332, the bottoming-out process will have failed for the time being and the bulls will have their chance.
