First of all: yes, I am aware of the risks. We don't necessarily need to discuss that 😇
Aim of the post: if you trade knock-out certificates, for example, what strategies do you have? If you have one, is it based on technical or fundamental data? Or both?
About the transaction: It is a KO certificate on alibaba. Bought sometime q3 2024 when the strike price was around 65$ (ADR), sold in February 2025 when the strike price was around 140$ - so held against every "recommendation" for many months (instead of a few weeks). I had put in 2500€.
What was my "strategy"?
I decided to avoid a market 100% when it is in a correction/bear market - no matter how good the company is. That's what I learned in 2022 $TSLA (-2,95 %) when they went down to 100$. I bought at 150$ and thought to myself what everyone was probably thinking "it can't go any lower 😅. Experience shows that no "support zones", which I looked at on a weekly basis on marketscreener.com, hold in such phases. Since I have no idea about charting, that was my only "tool" 😅... and bang... I was knocked out. Ergo: USA 100% currently ruled out for KO certificates.
Change of strategy 🔄
With $BABA (-2,56 %) I thought of the following:
- The hang seng had moved sideways after the real estate crisis
- At the beginning of 2024 there was no recovery, but the real estate market and the economy stabilized for the first time, which led me to look more positively at China - so I continued to hold.
- The fact that China equities were massively undervalued at the time also confirmed my "strategy".
- At the end of 2024, there were indeed slight recoveries in China, which the Hang Seng reflected.
The bet has been absorbed.
I made another bet a few weeks ago on $9888 (-0,67 %) a few weeks ago.
What strategies/tools do you use if you trade KO Zerts? I would be really interested. After all, you never stop learning 🫡
Disclaimer: the times mentioned are from the memory log, in case there are internet sherlocks around here 🥸☺️
