Current Overview
Archer Aviation Inc (NYSE: ACHR) currently trades around $8.45 per share. The company is positioned in one of the most disruptive and high-growth potential sectors: electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) aircraft.
Why Archer Could Be Attractive
Disruptive Vision in Urban Mobility
- Archer is developing eVTOL aircraft designed to transport passengers quickly and sustainably in urban environments. The Midnight model can carry four passengers at speeds up to 150 mph (~240 km/h) with a range of ~100 miles (~160 km).
Strong Strategic Partnerships
- Archer is backed by industry giants such as United Airlines and Stellantis, and has operational agreements with Jetex (UAE) to launch air mobility infrastructure in the Middle East.
Imminent Commercialization
- Short-term (2025–2026): commercial launches expected in Abu Dhabi and other Middle Eastern markets, with projected revenues between $20–30 million over 2025–26.
- The company has also been selected to provide air taxi services for the Los Angeles 2028 Olympic Games, planning a fleet of ~50 aircraft and a network of “vertiports.”
Innovation & Sustainability
- Archer integrates AI and large language models into its pilot systems (via partnerships with Palantir), making flight operations safer and more efficient.
- Its zero-emission mobility solutions also provide a strong ESG advantage.
Potentially Attractive Valuation
- Although still pre-revenue, Archer holds ~$1.7 billion in liquidity.
- Based on discounted cash flow models, its fair value is estimated around $30.49 per share—suggesting a potential upside of more than 200% compared to current levels.
Objectives & Roadmap
Short-term
- Launch of first commercial flights in UAE starting 2025.
- Progress toward full FAA certification in the United States (already obtained Part 135 and Part 141 approvals).
- Preparation for the LA 2028 Olympics air taxi rollout, a key commercial and media milestone.
Long-term (post-2028)
- Expansion of a global eVTOL network across major cities worldwide.
- Scale production, maintenance services, and “mobility-as-a-service” operations.
- Achieve profitability: forecasts suggest positive free cash flow by 2029 (~$286M), potentially rising to ~$1.5B by 2035.
Potential Upside for Investors
- Share price appreciation: If commercialization and certification succeed, the stock could converge toward the $30+ fair value.
- First mover advantage: Being among the first operational eVTOL providers in global metropolitan markets.
- Strategic value: Partnerships and proprietary technology could increase structural value and even M&A potential.
Key Risks to Consider
- Pre-revenue, high cash burn: free cash flow was negative ~$472M last year.
- Certification challenges & competition: FAA approval and competition from Joby and others remain uncertain.
- Short-seller critiques: Some reports question Archer’s projections and communications.
- Speculative valuation: Much of the stock’s price today is based on expectations of future success.
My conclusion
Investing in Archer Aviation today is essentially a bet on the future of urban air mobility: fast, clean, and scalable.
If Archer successfully executes on its commercial launches—first in the Middle East, then in the U.S., and finally on the world stage at the LA 2028 Olympics—the upside is considerable.
That said, this is a high-risk, high-reward investment. The next 1–3 years will be critical. For investors with strong risk tolerance and a long-term horizon, Archer offers an opportunity to get in before the market fully prices in its potential.