When Congress fails to agree on a budget, federal agencies run out of funding. That means hundreds of thousands of workers furloughed, delays in economic data releases, slower approvals for projects, and uncertainty for defense and infrastructure contracts. In short: the world’s biggest economy suddenly gets paralyzed by politics.
📉 For the markets
- Equities often wobble: $SPX500 and $DJ30 usually trade lower on fear and lack of clarity.
- Government-linked names — $BA (-0,51 %) (defense), $LTM (aerospace), $CAT (+0,93 %) (infrastructure) — feel the direct hit.
- Bond markets react: $US10Y yields can spike as investors question fiscal stability.
- The dollar ($DXY) tends to weaken, fueling flows into gold ($GLD) and crypto ($BTC, $ETH) as hedges.
- Tech heavyweights ($AAPL, $MSFT, $NVDA, $TSLA) may outperform relatively, as their revenues depend less on federal budgets — though overall risk-off sentiment keeps volatility high.
🌍 Global spillover
Shutdown jitters ripple across the globe. European banks like $UCG (+0,38 %) , $ISP (+1,21 %) , and $BBVA (-0,23 %) may face indirect pressure, while Asian leaders ($TSM (+2,94 %) , $BABA (+0,72 %) , $TCEHY (+0 %) ) react to dollar moves and global liquidity. Commodities such as $CL (-1,08 %) (oil) and $NG (gas) also swing as traders reassess growth expectations.
💼 My portfolio
Unlike many, my exposure to the U.S. is below 10%. That means I’m insulated from Washington’s political storms. My weight is spread across:
- Europe: financials, energy, and industrials remain my core.
- Asia: tech and consumer growth.
- Other regions: balanced allocation to commodities, banks, and global blue chips.
This positioning gives me the freedom to observe U.S. volatility without being dragged under. A shutdown may shake Wall Street, but my capital is shielded by a strong global balance.
⚡ The play
Shutdowns don’t break markets — they bend them. For me, it’s less about defense and more about opportunity: I can selectively add exposure to quality U.S. names beaten down by short-term panic while my diversified base keeps me steady.
✨ And when Washington stumbles, history shows: gold ($GLD (+0,05 %)
), crypto ($BTC (+2,45 %)
), and defensive plays like Coca-Cola ($KO (+0,46 %)
) often shine brightest.