Fear and greed are the real price drivers
If you observe individuals Aktien over the years, you understand what is really going on in the Börse really going on.
At times they are loved, then they fall out of favor, crash and then go through the roof again.
Sometimes this happens even though neither the business model nor the growth rates have really changed much.
Fiserv is a prime example of this.
In 2019, a veritable hype broke out around payment service providers and Fiserv's valuation climbed to its highest level ever.
The industry then fell out of favor and the share price stagnated until 2023, despite earnings increasing by at least 10 % in every single year and reaching new record levels.
This was followed by a surge that catapulted the share to a new all-time high of USD 238 in February.
Since then, however, Fiserv has come under massive pressure and the share price has literally collapsed.
Only sentiment counts in the short term
Looking at the figures, one wonders why - just as with all previous share price explosions and crashes.
Of course there are reasons for the price action, but they are quite different from what the majority would assume.
The majority assume that the price rises or falls because business is good or bad. Currently, for example, the "weak" development in the transaction volume of Clover, a subsidiary of Fiserv, is cited as the reason for the fall in the share price.
In reality, however, this is not the reason. The actual trigger for the price losses is solely to be found in the change in investor sentiment - as with all previous price explosions and price falls.
Because business is still going brilliantly. Profits are expected to rise by 16% this year, just as they did in the three previous years, when earnings rose by 16-17% in each case.
In addition, profits are also expected to rise by 16-17% in the next two years.
This allows only one logical conclusion: the actual trigger for the share price losses can only be the change in investor sentiment, it cannot be the business figures.
Once this has been understood, the only question that remains is whether the current valuation is justified or not.
Fiserv currently has a forward P/E of 13.0, which is low in relation to the current growth rates and in view of all the information available. Over the last five years, the P/E has averaged 21.3.
Fiserv share: Chart from 16.09.2025, price: USD 132.65 - symbol: FI | source: TWS
If the stock now manages to rise above USD 140, the bulls will be back in the race and price gains towards USD 147 and USD 155-160 would be conceivable. The chart picture would brighten sustainably above this level.
However, if the share falls below USD 130, further price losses must be expected. Below USD 130, the Unterstützungen are lining up.
