1Semana·

Fluence Energy - New addition

The Fluence Energy share $FLNC (-1,1 %) have recently come under considerable pressure. After the Q3 figures, the share price fell by almost 20% and the forecast was lowered - it is clear that many investors are keeping their distance for the time being.

Fluence Energy is a company in the field of energy storage technology and services. It was founded in 2018 as a joint venture between Siemens $SIE (-0,74 %) and the AES Corporation $AES (-0,93 %) to combine the expertise of both companies in energy storage and develop innovative solutions for integrating renewable energy into power grids.

Energy storage as the key

There can be no energy transition without storage. Wind and solar power must be reliably stored and fed into the grid. Fluence is one of the few specialists in the world that focuses precisely on this.

Order book full

More than USD 2.5 billion is in the backlog. This is a strong signal that the demand is there. If these projects are implemented, Fluence could be in a much better position from 2026.

Fluence offers a variety of energy storage solutions, including:

- Gridstack Pro™: a modular platform for industrial applications.

- Smartstack™: A high-density, AC-based energy storage platform with a modular design.

- Ultrastack™: A solution for smaller applications with high energy density.

- Mosaic™: AI-powered software for intelligent bidding and optimization of energy storage resources

- Nispera™: A software for performance monitoring and analysis of energy storage systems.

Technology & Projects

With the Gridstack Pro systems, they set standards in safety. Major projects in Australia, Germany and even the Ukraine are real references - and references lead to follow-up orders.

Production for scaling

New plants in Houston and Vietnam are intended to help reduce costs and improve margins. Exactly what a growth company needs.

Of course there are risks: competition, thin margins, high expectations on the stock market. But it is clear to me that Fluence is in a market that will only become more important in the coming years.

My impression: in the short term, the share price is shaky - in the long term, Fluence could become one of the winners of the energy transition.

05.09

Fluence Energy

Compró 1000 a 7,45 US$

7449,90 US$

22 Comentarios

Tenbagger2024@Tenbagger2024

1Semana

Profits will more than double every year.
A P/E ratio of 700 next year is sporty.
But then falls to 27

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Chris@Multibagger

1Semana

@Tenbagger2024 but only if the profits are maintained and the share does not rise😉😎 and are you sure at 27? They would have to increase profits twenty-fivefold for that. I think you mean 270?

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Tenbagger2024@Tenbagger2024

1Semana

@Multibagger
In the year 2027

https://www.onvista.de/aktien/kennzahlen/FLUENCE-ENERGY-INC-Aktie-US34379V1035

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Tenbagger2024@Tenbagger2024

1Semana

@Multibagger
https://www.finanzen.net/schaetzungen/fluence_energy

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Chris@Multibagger

1Semana

@Tenbagger2024 as you write then falls to 27! 😉 I wanted to buy immediately 😂😎

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Seventrader@7Trader

1Semana

@Tenbagger2024 You certainly have to be patient with this stock.
I already have AES $AES in my portfolio and have been following Fluence since the. IPO. With a bit of bad luck, I bought it a long time ago ☺️. Reminds me a bit of Siemens Energy 🤑🤞🏼

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Tenbagger2024@Tenbagger2024

1Semana

@7Trader
I think there should soon be a trend reversal at $NEE.

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Seventrader@7Trader

1Semana

@Tenbagger2024 I would wish for that. They are also bobbing around on the zero line in my portfolio 🤑🤞🏼

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Tenbagger2024@Tenbagger2024

1Semana

@7Trader
Patience is important

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Chris@Multibagger

1Semana

Well, I'll do my bit here too.
$FLNCThe company, a leading global integrator of energy storage systems with a market capitalization of $1.35 billion, is at a critical juncture. The company is navigating a complex environment of regulatory challenges, market opportunities and competitive pressures. According to an analysis by InvestingPro, the company's overall financial health is rated as "balanced", although it faces significant operational challenges. As the energy storage market continues to expand, driven by the increasing use of renewable energy and the growing need for grid stability, Fluence's position as a major player in this sector is both promising and uncertain.

Company overview and recent development
Fluence Energy has established itself as a major force in the energy storage industry, with a strong presence in North America and expanding operations in Europe, the Middle East, Africa and Asia Pacific. The company's market capitalization in August 2025 was around $1.35 billion, reflecting its essential role in the industry. InvestingPro's analysis shows that the stock trades with high price volatility, at a beta of 2.67, and has shown strong returns over the past three months despite a significant decline over the past year.

However, Fluence has recently faced headwinds to its financial performance. In its Q3 2025 earnings report, the company missed analysts' revenue expectations by around $150 million and fell about $100 million short of its own internal targets. Data from InvestingPro shows that the company is rapidly depleting cash, resulting in a negative free cash flow yield and weak gross profit margins of 12.7%. Despite these challenges, the company has more cash and cash equivalents than debt on its balance sheet. This underperformance was mainly attributed to a slower than expected ramp-up in the US market.

Despite these challenges, there are some positive indicators. Analysts note that new orders have remained robust, indicating continued demand for Fluence's offerings. In addition, margins were reportedly stronger than expected, potentially pointing to operational efficiencies within the company.

Market position and competitive environment
Fluence Energy benefits from a first-mover advantage in domestic sourcing, which could lead to price and margin premiums in the US market. This positioning is particularly advantageous given the current regulatory environment, which has imposed significant tariffs on Chinese imports.

The company's product offering, which includes a balanced mix of US and Chinese technology, allows it to continue to qualify for the Investment Tax Credit (ITC). This eligibility gives Fluence a competitive advantage over lower cost offerings that are wholly sourced from China and do not qualify for the ITC.

However, the competitive environment remains challenging. Chinese manufacturers continue to exert pressure on the global market with their lower-priced products. Fluence must compete in this environment while navigating the complexities of transitioning to a greater reliance on US-made cells to avoid tariffs on Chinese components.

Regulatory environment and challenges
The regulatory environment plays a crucial role in Fluence Energy's prospects. Recent developments, including the imposition of 155.9% tariffs on Chinese imports, have created both opportunities and challenges for the company. While these tariffs potentially benefit Fluence's domestic production capacity, they also create uncertainty and potential project delays.

The Investment Tax Credit (ITC) remains a significant factor in Fluence's competitive position. The company's ability to qualify for these credits through 2030 and beyond, as recent legislative developments suggest, could provide a significant long-term advantage.

However, the complex customs environment and potential restrictions related to Foreign Entity of Concern (FEOC) credits bring additional uncertainties. Analysts have cited these regulatory challenges as reasons for caution in the short to medium term.

Future prospects and growth potential
Despite the current challenges, the long-term outlook for Fluence Energy remains cautiously optimistic. Based on InvestingPro's fair value analysis, the stock appears slightly undervalued at current levels. The energy storage market is expected to experience significant growth, driven by several factors:

1. falling battery prices, making energy storage more economical.

2. increasing demand for grid stability as renewable energy sources become more prevalent.

3. growing demand from AI-related data centers, which is expected to significantly increase the need for battery storage.

Analysts estimate that AI-driven demand alone could add about $1 per share to Fluence's valuation. This emerging trend represents a potentially significant tailwind for the company's future growth.

In addition, Fluence's strategic pivot toward U.S.-made cells could prove beneficial in the long run, as it may allow the company to capture a premium for domestic content and improve its competitive position against Chinese manufacturers.

Bear Case
How will the ongoing tariff uncertainties affect Fluence's competitiveness?
The complex customs environment poses a significant challenge for Fluence Energy. Although the company benefits from its ability to offer products that qualify for the Investment Tax Credit, continued uncertainty regarding tariffs on Chinese imports could impact its supply chain and cost structure. If tariffs remain or increase, Fluence may have difficulty maintaining competitive prices while maintaining margins.

In addition, potential regulatory changes or new restrictions related to Foreign Entity of Concern (FEOC) credits create another layer of complexity. These uncertainties could result in project delays or cancellations, which would impact Fluence's revenue streams and market share. The company's ability to navigate these regulatory challenges while maintaining its competitive advantage will be critical to its long-term success.

Can Fluence overcome the challenges of transitioning to domestic cell production?
Fluence's strategic shift to increased domestic cell production in response to tariffs on Chinese imports presents both opportunities and challenges. While this move could potentially protect the company from some tariff impacts and allow it to capture premiums on domestic content, the transition is not without risks.

The company could face initial hurdles in ramping up domestic production, including potential delays, higher costs and the need for significant capital investment. There is also a risk of supply chain disruptions during this transition period. As Fluence works to build its domestic production capacity, competitors could gain ground in the market and potentially erode the company's market share.

The success of this transition will depend on Fluence's ability to efficiently ramp up domestic production while maintaining product quality and competitive pricing. Any misstep in this process could lead to financial strain and a loss of market position.

Bull Case
How could Fluence capitalize on its first-mover advantage in domestic sourcing?
Fluence Energy's early focus on domestic procurement positions the company favorably in the current regulatory environment. As one of the first players to establish significant domestic production capacity, Fluence stands to benefit in several ways:

1. eligibility for government incentives: Fluence's products, which incorporate a blend of U.S. and Chinese technology, remain eligible for the Investment Tax Credit (ITC). This eligibility provides a competitive advantage over all-Chinese alternatives that do not qualify for these incentives.

2. price and margin premiums: As customers assess the value of FEOC-compliant batteries with ITC benefits, Fluence may be able to charge higher prices and realize stronger margins compared to non-compliant competitors.

3. reduced exposure to tariff risks: By relying more heavily on domestic components, Fluence can mitigate the impact of potential future tariffs on Chinese imports, leading to more stability in its supply chain and cost structure.

4. market perception: Fluence's commitment to domestic production can enhance its reputation with customers and policy makers, potentially leading to preferential treatment in contracting and political considerations.

If Fluence can leverage these advantages effectively, it could strengthen its market position and potentially capture a larger share of the growing energy storage market.

What potential does the growing AI-driven demand for energy storage hold for Fluence?
The rise of artificial intelligence and the associated expansion of data centers represents a significant opportunity for Fluence Energy. This emerging trend is expected to drive significant demand for battery storage solutions. Analysts forecast that AI-related demand could add about $1 per share to Fluence's valuation.

Several factors make this opportunity particularly promising for Fluence:

1. market growth: the rapid adoption of AI applications should accelerate the need for reliable and efficient energy storage solutions, creating a new, potentially large market segment.

2. technical expertise: Fluence's experience with grid-scale energy storage systems positions the company well to meet the specific needs of data centers that require high-capacity, reliable storage solutions.

3. synergies with existing business: the company can leverage its existing technologies and supply chain relationships to efficiently serve this new market segment.

4. long-term contracts: Data center projects often involve long-term agreements that could provide Fluence with a stable revenue stream and better predictability of future earnings.

If Fluence is able to establish itself as the preferred provider for AI-driven energy storage solutions, this could significantly improve its growth prospects and financial performance in the coming years.

SWOT analysis
Strengths
Strong market share in North America and expanding global presence
Domestic sourcing capabilities that offer competitive advantages
Eligibility for the Investment Tax Credit (ITC)
Expertise in grid-scale energy storage systems
Weaknesses
Recent sales misses and slower than expected ramp-up of the US market
Ongoing cash burn expected through the end of the year and possibly into 2026
Challenges in transitioning to increased domestic cell production
Opportunities
Growing demand for energy storage driven by the use of renewable energy
Emerging market for battery storage solutions in AI-related data centers
Potential for margin improvements through vertical integration and premium for domestic content
Extension of ITC benefits to 2030 and beyond
Risks
Complex and changing customs environment affecting competitiveness
Intense competition from Chinese manufacturers offering lower priced products
Regulatory uncertainties, including potential restrictions on FEOC credits
Supply chain disruptions and commodity inflationary pressures
Analyst price targets
Barclays: $8.00 (August 20, 2025)
RBC Capital Markets: $6.00 (May 9, 2025)
Piper Sandler: $4.00 (April 21, 2025)
Barclays: $5.00 (April 9, 2025)
Fluence Energy is at a critical juncture and faces both significant challenges and promising opportunities. While regulatory uncertainty and competitive pressures present immediate hurdles, the company's strategic positioning in the growing energy storage market, particularly through emerging AI-driven demand, offers potential for long-term growth. Investors and industry observers will be watching closely to see how Fluence navigates these complex dynamics in the months and years ahead.

This analysis is based on information available through August 20, 2025.

My conclusion: could be interesting if expectations are met and the obstacles, especially in the USA, are resolved.

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Chris@Multibagger

1Semana

Thanks for the info. Do you have any information on how high the US share is?

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Seventrader@7Trader

1Semana

@Multibagger In 2024, the US share of sales was around 50 percent.

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Chris@Multibagger

1Semana

@7Trader that is of course a lot

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Seventrader@7Trader

1Semana

@Multibagger Fluence has a clear strategy of onshoring manufacturing, both to reduce global supply chain risks and to promote the US supply chain. Virtually all production facilities (except Vietnam) are located in the US.

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Chris@Multibagger

1Semana

@7Trader But what are the storage facilities needed for if DT no longer wants alternative energies?

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Seventrader@7Trader

1Semana

@Multibagger
Are you really asking what electricity storage is needed for?
I also don't know who or what DT is supposed to be..... 🙃

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Chris@Multibagger

1Semana

@7Trader OK, sorry. I thought DT was a well-known abbreviation in connection with the USA.😂 DT is Donald Trump and if he doesn't want alternative energies, the USA doesn't need storage for the energy generated. Because he relies on gas and nuclear power. I see a danger that there will be further disappointments with project implementations.

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Seventrader@7Trader

1Semana

@Multibagger Thank you for the explanation about DT.

What is said and what actually happens in the world do not always coincide. Also, DT will be gone at some point, but the need for electricity storage is growing.
In addition, Fluence operates internationally and expanding sales outside the US is not out of the question.

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Chris@Multibagger

1Semana

@7Trader OK, then you see it as a long-term investment. That can work well. I'm with you on that.

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Seventrader@7Trader

@Multibagger Yes, the idea is to keep the title for longer. But only if things go in the right direction again at some point

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financial_guru_1683@financial_guru_1683

1Semana

My entry price was €10... 🙈

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Seventrader@7Trader

1Semana

@financial_guru_1683 I also wanted to buy much earlier. Well, let's see in a few years.....

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