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Novo Nordisk

TaxesAreTheft · 2025-01-20T20:25:13.403609Z

An die Leute die grad so heiß auf $NOVO B sind, mich interessiert was eure kurz, mittel und langfristige These ist. Wist ihr, dass das Ozempic Patent nur noch für dieses Jahr ist? Zumindest sehe ich auf der Timeline immer wieder Leute die recht neu in der Thematik zu sein scheinen und ich frage mich ob überhaupt das Wissen bezüglich der Patentlage da ist. Mit Ozempic wird das Standbein weg brechen und das Unternehmen ist alles andere als günstig bewertet. Wie schätzt ihr die schnell wachsende Konkurrenz und die Pipeline ein?

To the people who are so hot on $NOVO B (+1,57 %) I'm interested in what your short, medium and long-term thesis is.

Do you know that the Ozempic patent is only for this year? At least I keep seeing people on the timeline who seem to be quite new to the subject and I wonder if there is any knowledge at all about the patent situation.

With Ozempic, the mainstay will break away and the company is anything but favorably valued.

How do you rate the rapidly growing competition and the pipeline?

15 Comentarios

Marc@Buchmacher

In Europe, the patents for Wegovy and Ozempic do not expire until the early 2030s. In the USA, they run until 2035. source Google . In China, they are due to expire in 2026. Please correct me if I am wrong.

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TaxesAreTheft@TaxesAreTheft

@Buchmacher No, I agree, but the European drug market is irrelevant, only the USA is important.

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Alexander_Bitcoin@Alexander_Bitcoin

@TaxesAreTheft What nonsense! There are significantly more people in the EU and we have a more generous healthcare system.

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Alexander_Bitcoin@Alexander_Bitcoin

@TaxesAreTheft EU market is one of the most important!

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TaxesAreTheft@TaxesAreTheft

@Alexander_Bitcoin If I remember correctly, almost 50% of the profits of the global pharmaceutical industry are generated in the USA. For many drugs even upwards of 60%.

The European market caps the price of drugs, whereas in the US the market sets the price.

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Marcel@xzxzx

These are things that are already priced into the share price.

What's more, everyone at Novo Nordisk knows this themselves, so there's plenty of time to prepare for it. Or do you think they are sitting there in their calls and beating their hands over their heads?

I'm not an expert in this field, but I've read up on it here and there and have also asked the AI. Here are some possible solutions, but if it's total bullshit, I'd be happy to be proven wrong :):

Novo Nordisk could pursue various strategies to secure or even extend the market position of Ozempic (semaglutide) after the patent expires. Here are some possible approaches:

1. additional indications and combination therapies

Novo Nordisk could try to get Ozempic approved for new indications. This means developing the drug for conditions other than the original indication (type 2 diabetes), such as the treatment of cardiovascular disease, obesity or other metabolic disorders. Such an extension could allow Novo Nordisk to indirectly extend the patent, as new clinical trials and approvals are required. Combination therapies could also be developed in which Ozempic is combined with other drugs to create unique treatment options.

2. formulation innovations

One way for Novo Nordisk to maintain exclusivity would be to change or improve the formulation of the drug. For example, the company could develop an extended release or a new dosage form (e.g. oral formulation instead of injection) that cannot be immediately imitated by generic manufacturers. Such improvements could justify a new patent that provides additional time to gain market advantage.

3. extension of market authorization into new markets

Novo Nordisk could seek approval for Ozempic in new geographic markets or countries where it is not yet available. Launching a drug in new markets can be exclusive for some time, especially if an expensive approval and commercialization pipeline is required there.

4. patent extension through evergreening

"Evergreening is a strategy whereby a company attempts to extend the validity of its patent by making small changes or improvements to an existing product. This could be through the development of new dosage forms, mechanisms of action or the combination of semaglutide with other substances. However, this practice is often seen by critics as an attempt to stifle competition and is not always successful, as patents on such modifications can be easily challenged in many jurisdictions.

5. strengthening the brand name and patient loyalty

Novo Nordisk could strengthen the Ozempic brand name through intensive marketing and strong patient engagement. This could be done through patient support programs, education on the benefits of the drug or through partnerships with physicians and healthcare systems. Long-term data on Ozempic's safety and efficacy, demonstrating its superior performance to generic alternatives, could also help maintain brand loyalty.

6. defense of patents and intellectual property

Novo Nordisk may seek to legally defend existing patents on Ozempic and related technologies. This could take the form of patent suits against potential copycat products or challenges to biosimilars that the company may imitate in the future. The company could also seek to support existing patents with additional patents related to the manufacture, use or composition of Ozempic.

7. research and development of new products

A long-term approach would be to invest in research and development of new drugs that contain semaglutide or similar active ingredients but represent a unique, patentable innovation. These new drugs could potentially combine the benefits of Ozempic with new therapeutic options and keep Novo Nordisk at the forefront of the market.

In summary, Novo Nordisk can pursue several approaches to secure Ozempic's market leadership after patent expiry. A mix of new therapeutic indications, formulation innovation and aggressive brand protection could help the company avoid competition from generic or biosimilar products.

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TaxesAreTheft@TaxesAreTheft

@xzxzx Very good answer. How do you see the bullcase with the PPE for Ozempic?

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Marcel@xzxzx

As already mentioned, I think a lot is priced into the share price.

I'm hoping for good figures at the beginning of February and think that in conjunction with positive reports from studies and PPE and possibly a friendlier Trump than many are currently expecting, things could turn bullish very quickly.

The negative reports are currently piling up. But these are all things that are buzzing around, negative influence on the pharmaceutical industry under Trump, PPE expiry, negative reports in studies (because the maximum dose was not taken) that spread uncertainty.

And as we all know, the stock market hates that!

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Harald@Madhatter5566

@xzxzx They could also sell more sugar products. That GPT has not thought of this to broaden its customer base.

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Dividendenopi👴@Dividendenopi

In Canada, admittedly not a small market, and China, patent protection expires in 2026. In Europe in the early 2030s and in the USA in 2035. This also applies to Wegovy.

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Carles@Carles

Expiration in the US for the primary patent part is next year. There is an implicit risk there and generic competition is obviously increasing it. That’s explains the stock price downtrend. They do have secondary patents till 2033 trying to protect their market, but it is to be seen what happens with the new drugs that will show up like mushrooms, even if they were a bit less efective, if the price is way lower we’ll see what happens.

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Chris@Multibagger

I would just like to say something about the short-term teading points. I expect a technical reaction of 5-10% before the figures in 2 weeks' time> My derivatives trade is geared towards this. In the medium term, there are more interesting stocks for me to invest in from this area, e.g. $BNTX

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TaxesAreTheft@TaxesAreTheft

@Multibagger good thesis, there are enough catalysts

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András A.@Spinat

Ozempic was approved in the EU in 2018 and has protection for 10 years. There is something like market protection after that, but I don't know exactly how that works. Wegowy was approved in 2022. Just a few days ago new results on increased dose semaglutide.

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Stephan K.@StrahlemannLP

Novo Nordisk's portfolio is not limited to Ozempic. At present, the fundamental data for Novo Nordisk continue to point to a healthy company. As long as this does not change, I am currently pleased with the extraordinarily good prices at which shares can be bought.

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