Hello my investors,
Today I would like to share my analysis of $ENPH (-1,43 %) with you. I would be delighted to hear your opinions on the share. The body text is only my summary of the analysis. You can download the full analysis as a Word file via the following link: https://www.mediafire.com/file/qzne5338hn7z7qz/Analyse_Enphase_Energy.docx/file
Conclusion:
The chart analysis shows us that we are already in a long-term downtrend and that there may now be a possible trend reversal. The OB on the monthly chart represents a strong support zone, which gives us hope for an upward trend. However, apart from this bullish structure, there are only a few weak bullish signals (RSI, MACD). However, a break of structure on the weekly chart could confirm a trend reversal, which is why the chart should be kept an eye on.
The fundamental analysis shows that Enphase Energy has already achieved a huge leap in growth in the past, which only slowed down in 2023 and turned into a slump in sales and profits in 2024. This was triggered by supply chain bottlenecks for semiconductors and interest rate hikes in the US. The latest quarterly figures (Q4 2024) were convincing again with a doubling of profits compared to the previous year and therefore point to a more positive future. Furthermore, the company can score with very high net profit margins compared to the industry as a whole. Enphase Energy's debt is high, but is kept in check by a high level of cash, which is why net debt is actually negative (cash > debt). The figures for the future again promise strong growth and good opportunities for expansion. In the short term, Trump's climate policy could lead to major difficulties for the company. The planned removal of subsidies for solar energy and subsidies for fossil fuels could drastically reduce demand for PV systems in the USA and thus limit the company's sales.
Enphase Energy's valuation is currently very high and even the forward P/E ratio for the coming years is above the industry average. However, in view of the strong growth figures and margins, a forward P/E ratio of 21x for 2026 is acceptable. The historical multiples are all at approximately 3-year lows and do not provide any long-term and meaningful trend reversal signals.
From the perspective of seasonal trends, there are many opportunities during the year. Mid-February to early March tends to be a bullish phase for Enphase Energy, which promises high returns. This part of the analysis is only of minor importance for long-term investments.
