I'm facing a challenge that, as is so often the case on the stock market, is all about timing. Specifically, I'm planning to buy a larger tranche of an ETF - let's call it for the sake of simplicity $VUSA (+0 %) or $IUSA (-0,02 %) .

As the US elections are just around the corner, there are various scenarios. Currently, one could assume a 50% chance of Trump winning and an equal chance for Harris.

If Trump wins, there is a realistic possibility that the markets will behave in a similar way to his last election: an initial slump followed by a sustained, euphoric upswing.

The situation is different if Harris wins. Here we would have a kind of "black swan": the first female president of the USA and a defeat for the more business-friendly Republican. The market reaction would be difficult to predict. I could imagine that there would initially be a certain amount of euphoria, followed by slight falls and a phase of sideways price movements, whereby individual sectors could come under particularly strong pressure.

Of course, the election result cannot be reliably predicted, and even less so the reaction of the markets to it. Nevertheless, from a scientific and statistical point of view, one of the following buying strategies is likely to be more advantageous and promising than the others. But which one?

a) I invest 100% of my capital today.

b) I wait for the election results and then invest 100% on November 11, for example.

c) I divide the capital into 4 tranches and invest 25% today, 25% on November 1, 25% on November 6 and the remaining 25% on November 10.

d) Feel free to suggest other buying strategies in the comments 🤓

Which strategy do you think makes the most sense under the current conditions?