What speaks for me in favor of Vonovia? 1) The current stock of a market value of about € 61 billion against about € 40 billion liabilities. 2) The liabilities are secured in the long term until 2030 so currently no excessive burden by the current interest rate environment 3) The state would never manage to ensure the housing for people and maintain. The state needs Vonovia. 4) Due to inflation and Habeck's plans I see less property in private hands in the future but more potential tenants. The current policy destroys the private house as a pension. 5) The apartments of Vonovia are energetically above the national average -> No above-average burden by the plans of the EU 6) Vonovia holds shares in many smaller housing companies. 7) Cash balance of about € 6 billion. Is it possible to swallow stumbling competitors in the foreseeable future? 8) The volume of trades is very high and that although there is nothing new from Vonovia which was not already priced in 4 weeks ago -> panic selling from my point of view. What speaks for me against Vonovia? 1) The reputation is far worse than what they are. The question is how far will certain groups go here -> expropriation? Even then, the market value is paid. 2) A possible KE. But here I have confidence in the management that they would rather stop the dividend than pay and then do a KE. Now of course there is the point of contention is the fair value of Vonovia properties well estimated ? Can one simply take fair value- liabilities = earnings > market capitalization ? I trust Vonovia here in the point of fair value estimation and think that a buffer of 33% to the liabilities is sufficient. For me personally a clear buy. But of course everyone must know for themselves. I do not understand the Gebashe and the panic around it. May be 2023 / 24 red stand but in the long term, this is for me a Risenchance that offers itself there.
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@JasiekStocks Point 1 was also one of the reasons why I joined.
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