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I rarely deal with BAT. (Irony) In the case of tobacco companies, it is always a question of the interplay between the decline in the cigarrette business and the increase in substitute products. I have written that specifically, because here, similar to the automotive industry, a structural change has to take place, which BAT has to deliver with the mentioned management change on the one hand and the quite successful substitute product division on the other hand. I could now write an ellenlage dissertation almost about BAT at this point (similar to the author of this analysis), however, we cannot analyze this structural break with data from the past. We do not know: 1) which role 🍁 could play in the future for BAT's substitute product line and if the past costs can be recovered, 2) if the market potential of the substitute products is really able to substitute the cigarrette market 100%. If not, the methodology of the "Dividend Value Trap" applies. In other words, we are buying at the peak of the dividend culture, but the group is gradually running out of opportunities. It is not easy to make this assessment for oneself and I say this consciously as a BAT investor. YES - the P/E ratio of around 7 is historically cheap YES - we have 3.5% GROWTH via CAGR with 75% share of new products. BUT: What is BAT doing in the battle with its competitors? Will there still be enough room for all the old established tobacco companies? This and much more now on .... :D So I can only say that BAT is for me one of the most exciting companies both from P/E ratio, P/B ratio and CAGR as well as the long-term perspective. But there are good arguments against it. I myself am cautiously bullish, but am watching the current management decisions very closely and will not add more for now. Please put the chairs up and close the windows. Comment massively shortened. No investment advice.
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@BASS-T I didn't mean to trigger you with the post (but secretly I knew the first comment would come from you😜) I'm also curious to see how the company and its competitors line up in the future. Thank you for your detailed comment ✅
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@GoDividend Always happy to help 🚀
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