1Lun
Do you really only have 1x ASML share and that's 8% of the portfolio?
I don't think the reallocation will make a big difference. As long as the semiconductor machinery industry continues to take each other into custody, nothing will happen with ASML. It doesn't matter at the moment whether you have ASML or KLA, LAM, Aixtron, Applied Materials, none of them are finding a buyer at the moment.
This is very similar to AFX, where there is also a weakness in the overall market, which is also affecting industry colleagues such as Thermo Fisher, Edwards Lifesciences etc. With the exception of Stryker, medical technology is generally not doing so well at the moment.
The upside should be the same for both. If nobody needs shovels at the moment, there is no point in being an alleged shovel seller. ASML's exposure to China is also 34%, so it's really a hop, skip and a jump. And here, too, export bans would hit ASML hard.
The only difference you might see is that you have to think about which area is more in focus: Medtec or semiconductors? When the trade war comes, it is usually not waged as a major offensive, but affects strategic sectors such as the steel industry, vehicles, etc.
I don't think the reallocation will make a big difference. As long as the semiconductor machinery industry continues to take each other into custody, nothing will happen with ASML. It doesn't matter at the moment whether you have ASML or KLA, LAM, Aixtron, Applied Materials, none of them are finding a buyer at the moment.
This is very similar to AFX, where there is also a weakness in the overall market, which is also affecting industry colleagues such as Thermo Fisher, Edwards Lifesciences etc. With the exception of Stryker, medical technology is generally not doing so well at the moment.
The upside should be the same for both. If nobody needs shovels at the moment, there is no point in being an alleged shovel seller. ASML's exposure to China is also 34%, so it's really a hop, skip and a jump. And here, too, export bans would hit ASML hard.
The only difference you might see is that you have to think about which area is more in focus: Medtec or semiconductors? When the trade war comes, it is usually not waged as a major offensive, but affects strategic sectors such as the steel industry, vehicles, etc.
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@Soprano yes, it's 8% of the portfolio, as I've mentioned before I flattened my portfolio in September in favor of buying a house.
Personally, I simply see more upside potential in ASML and everyone needs the shovels, even if the targets for 25 have now been adjusted.
As long as Zeiss continues its restructuring and cost-cutting program, it will continue to lose ground in its bread and butter business of opthohalmic.
As I wrote above, I'll wait for the H2 figures and then decide how and when to get back in.
Personally, I simply see more upside potential in ASML and everyone needs the shovels, even if the targets for 25 have now been adjusted.
As long as Zeiss continues its restructuring and cost-cutting program, it will continue to lose ground in its bread and butter business of opthohalmic.
As I wrote above, I'll wait for the H2 figures and then decide how and when to get back in.
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@Der_Dividenden_Monteur It's not getting any easier for either of them. They have enormous dependencies on China and Chinese or Asian copycats want them out of the market, but are not yet good enough themselves
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@topicswithhead with the difference that you cannot simply copy EUV.
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@Der_Dividenden_Monteur I don't want to say true, but the lower segments are already really competitive and EUV is lost, but the next technology is not. Of course ASML is the clear winner/leader so far, but that is not yet 100% certain and if you look at Taiwan you can see that a lot of IQ is being established in the sector. Mediatek is getting better and better and can now keep up with hardware technology, TSMC is the leader and it's not so far-fetched that an ASML could emerge somewhere along the line
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•1Lun
@Der_Dividenden_Monteur Oh, that's right, I certainly congratulated you too. Somehow so many people are buying houses this year, I'm getting all mixed up :D
So you're certainly not doing anything wrong with ASML, if they fall a bit further, I might get in too. But I think that when we meet here again in a year's time, none of the shares will have outperformed the others.
If Zeiss restructures well, they could come out of this much stronger. ASML dominates the market, but can therefore not gain any more market share, but theoretically lose some. Growth is only possible if the overall market grows. That can also become a problem. They also have to give their customers reasons to buy new machines every few years and not just use the ones that are already there. TSMC ordered next to nothing in 2023 last year. When the market is saturated, the next generation always has to come, and there is a lot of pressure to perform.
So you're certainly not doing anything wrong with ASML, if they fall a bit further, I might get in too. But I think that when we meet here again in a year's time, none of the shares will have outperformed the others.
If Zeiss restructures well, they could come out of this much stronger. ASML dominates the market, but can therefore not gain any more market share, but theoretically lose some. Growth is only possible if the overall market grows. That can also become a problem. They also have to give their customers reasons to buy new machines every few years and not just use the ones that are already there. TSMC ordered next to nothing in 2023 last year. When the market is saturated, the next generation always has to come, and there is a lot of pressure to perform.
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•@Soprano As I said, I might also get back into AFX, but ASML is more attractive to me at the moment.
If we meet here again in a year's time and neither stock has outperformed the other, I'll be happy to buy you a beer :D.
If we meet here again in a year's time and neither stock has outperformed the other, I'll be happy to buy you a beer :D.
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•1Lun
@Der_Dividenden_Monteur Let's do it 🍻 And as I said, maybe ASML will be even cheaper, then I'll get in too 😂
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