Together with the Q2 figures, Deutsche Börse raised its 2024 guidance on Wednesday evening (July 24). The new targets, each EUR 100 million higher (sales revenue: more than EUR 5.7 billion; EBITDA: more than EUR 3.3 billion), are below the estimates (EUR 6.0 billion and EUR 3.34 billion respectively).
However, analysts are confident that CEO Theodor Weimer and CFO Gregor Pottmeyer have kept their powder dry for further increases.
Q2 brought stronger sales (+24% after +16%) and EBITDA growth (+16% after +13%) than Q1. The driver remained the Investment Management Solutions business (IMS; sales +84%), which was expanded to include Simcorp and increased the share of structural growth. There was also a cyclical tailwind from higher market volatility in the trading business (+11%). It is important to keep an eye on the costs inflated by Simcorp: they rose by 27% in Q2 (org.: +6%).
In the call, however, Pottmeyer reiterated the goal of keeping costs in H2 organically at the level of H1 (+4%). This should help the EBITDA margin, which fell to 57.6% in Q2 (Q1: 61.3%; Q2 2023: 60.1%), mainly due to higher integration costs. In the IMS segment, at 28.5% (Q1: 35.4%), it fell below the level that Weimer had previously described as a sign of the successful integration of Simcorp (see PB of 25.4.).
The DAX share remained stable on Thursday in a weak environment. With a 2024 P/E ratio of 18 and an EBITDA multiple of 11, the valuation is still below the sector average (22 and 14 respectively) and offers upside potential.
