4Semana·

Good question, the market is definitely hot right now and we are at a point (or close to it) where valuations are less important.


Schiller PE for the S&P500 $SPY (+0,69 %) is 3rd highest in history.

attachment

https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe


There is a broad consensus in the financial world that high valuations speak for lower return in the long term.

But anything is possible in the short term.


However, this only applies to the US market and the technology sector in particular.

The international markets are mostly fairly valued.

And emerging markets (except India) are cheap.


If I had to buy something, I'd buy those instead.


But I'm already so invested that I can sit back and build up some investment reserves.


Just to be clear and not to be misunderstood:

I'm not saying the market is going to crash. I'm just saying that the valuation of the S&P500 has risen faster than earnings have grown.

This is an ongoing trend. Here is a paper from 2021 that describes this valuation expansion:

https://www.aqr.com/Insights/Perspectives/The-Long-Run-Is-Lying-to-You


If you want to sell, these above average valuations are great.

Unfortunately, most people here are at the beginning or middle of their investing careers. And buying at high valuations has historically led to lower returns. 😘

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Brazil is also an EM I would keep an eye on in 2025
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GTAA rulez 😻
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Schiller PE isn‘t to underestimate.
Could be an interesting signal to lower my participation in the world momentum and minimum volatility which have a heavy US-tilt and smallcaps US. The money could go into World Value and/or EU Smallcaps or some EM. But then again i try not to time the market… 🫠
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If World War 3 does indeed occur, then we could experience a crash/correction similar to that of the Great Depression.
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