Insurance sector likely to grow thanks to robust global economy
Short and sweet
The global insurance sector can expect good growth and higher profitability in 2024 and 2025, supported by a robust global economy and higher interest rates. Global gross domestic product is expected to grow by 2.7% in 2024 and 2.8% in 2025. Non-life insurance is expected to grow by 3.3% to USD 4.6 trillion in 2024 and by 2.6% in 2025. Life insurance will benefit from rising premium volumes and higher profitability, with premium growth of 2.9% to USD 3.0 trillion in 2024 and similar growth in 2025. Challenges remain due to inflation, extreme weather events and geopolitical uncertainties, among other things.
The global insurance sector can expect good growth and higher profitability in the current and coming year. This will be supported by a robust global economy and higher interest rates, according to a study by reinsurer Swiss Re.
Long and more detailed:
Despite geopolitical tensions and higher inflation, the global economy is proving "remarkably resilient", explained Swiss Re chief economist Jérôme Haegeli in the Swiss Re Institute's new "World Insurance Sigma" report. The robust global economy should increase demand for insurance.
According to Swiss Re estimates, global gross domestic product will grow by 2.7 percent in the current year and by 2.8 percent in 2025. Even if the return to lower inflation rates is not proceeding smoothly, monetary conditions have begun to ease worldwide: In September, the US Federal Reserve is expected to make its first cut in key interest rates.
Due to inflation and the resulting increase in claims costs, the trend towards higher prices in non-life insurance is likely to continue. According to forecasts, the premium volume in non-life insurance will grow by 3.3% to 4.6 trillion dollars in 2024, with growth of 2.6% expected in 2025.
In the life insurance sector, the positive interest rates are having a doubly positive effect: Institutions can expect an increase in premium volume and higher profitability. Premiums are forecast to rise by 2.9% to 3.0 trillion dollars, with similar growth expected in 2025 (+2.7%). The operating result is expected to increase by 15 percent, particularly in the largest markets.
The insurance industry continues to face major challenges, explained Kera McDonald, Chief Underwriting Officer of the Swiss Re Corporate Solutions division: these include severe weather events, which have increased significantly in recent years. The annual standard of insured losses is now over 100 billion dollars, with a growth rate of 5 to 7 percent per year.
Inflation is also leading to rising claims. Geopolitical and regulatory uncertainties are also influencing insurers' business. Since 2020, insurance claims from strikes, riots and civil unrest have increased by a factor of 30, according to McDonald. Rapid technological change, for example in the field of artificial intelligence, poses additional risks.
The largest reinsurers:
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Sources:
awp
McKinsey Global Insurance Report 2023 | McKinsey (2023 - for context)
Top 50 Global Reinsurance Groups - Reinsurance News
