1Lun
A commodity company shortly after re-inversion of the yield curve? Uiuiui! 😳
That will take a lot out of you! Good perseverance!
That will take a lot out of you! Good perseverance!
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@Epi I would describe "re-inversion" as an inversion of the inverted yield curve. This would cause short-term interest rates to fall below long-term rates. What would be bad about that? Or am I misunderstanding something?
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1Lun
@Dividendenopi The re-inversion or normalization of the yield curve is one of the most reliable recession indicators of all, 100% meeting rate over the last 100 years. It usually takes a while, but 6 months later the time has usually come.
I would not necessarily buy cyclically sensitive commodity companies right now.
But what do I know with my broken crystal ball? 🤷
I would not necessarily buy cyclically sensitive commodity companies right now.
But what do I know with my broken crystal ball? 🤷
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1Lun
@Epi under further ? No one knows how strong it will be or not. You can also use this as an argument against Tesla or Apple. In the event of a recession, the market will go broadly downwards...but what does that matter if the investment horizon is longer than the next short-term pig cycle...
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1Lun
@Epi time in the market Beats timing the market. Always in installments...and especially with Rio you enjoy the coupon while waiting.
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@Epi The statistics show that, with one exception, an inverted yield curve has always led to a recession. If the curve now "normalizes back" - assuming that the long-term interest rate is higher than the short-term one - where do you see the 100% indicator for a recession? Well, the inversion should slowly start to take hold and the statistical recession should really kick in, which always takes a while. But if this happens by chance, the moment of re-inversion is not causal.
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1Lun
@Dividendenopi As I understand it, the normalization of the yield curve is actually about its rise. This seems problematic to me because it indicates that loans are being granted on a longer-term basis, i.e. banks' and investors' capital is no longer sitting so loosely. This indicates a recession.
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