5Lun
I take a rather critical view of India due to its politics/society (keyword Hindu nationalism), which is why I would not invest. Similar to China. In addition, most India ETFs are already highly valued at the moment.
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5Lun
@Din4d4n What do you see as critical about that? Do you think they are getting sanctions from the USA because of it?
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5Lun
@Soprano No, I wouldn't go that far, but that's also an interesting point!
To elaborate on all this:
- Hindu nationalism (Arte recently produced an interesting documentary about it): Radicalization naturally deters foreign investment.
- I also see BRICS membership as a disadvantage in the current geopolitical situation (new bloc formation). India is more or less caught between two stools here.
- The Indian educated elite is still migrating to the large industrialized nations.
What India has in my opinion is human capital, but here I see AI as a danger. It also has a large market, but why invest in Indian companies? There are enough international companies that can still expand in India.
To be honest, there are too many unpredictable risks for me, there are better investments.
To elaborate on all this:
- Hindu nationalism (Arte recently produced an interesting documentary about it): Radicalization naturally deters foreign investment.
- I also see BRICS membership as a disadvantage in the current geopolitical situation (new bloc formation). India is more or less caught between two stools here.
- The Indian educated elite is still migrating to the large industrialized nations.
What India has in my opinion is human capital, but here I see AI as a danger. It also has a large market, but why invest in Indian companies? There are enough international companies that can still expand in India.
To be honest, there are too many unpredictable risks for me, there are better investments.
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5Lun
@Din4d4n a) Pretty much all countries in Asia are ethnonationalist. Korea, Japan, China, India, Russia, Israel, the list is endless. Those that are not have a heavy cross to bear. Diversity is strength has not yet worked in any Asian country.
b) Geopolitically, India is doing quite well. Being caught between two stools is actually an advantage, as you can position yourself perfectly to your own advantage. India can accept development aid from Germany and trade with Russia at the same time. How cool is that?
c) Joar, the brain drain is of course a huge problem, but it affects all developing countries and even Germany. We also lose twice as many doctors across the border every year as we get new ones.
India not only has the human capital, but also enormous potential to catch up in terms of exports. In the foreseeable future, we can triple or even increase tenfold. I wouldn't bet on European companies conquering India in a big way. VW is not half as successful in India as it was in China before e-mobility. At the same time, however, the Indians are well represented in the European market.
b) Geopolitically, India is doing quite well. Being caught between two stools is actually an advantage, as you can position yourself perfectly to your own advantage. India can accept development aid from Germany and trade with Russia at the same time. How cool is that?
c) Joar, the brain drain is of course a huge problem, but it affects all developing countries and even Germany. We also lose twice as many doctors across the border every year as we get new ones.
India not only has the human capital, but also enormous potential to catch up in terms of exports. In the foreseeable future, we can triple or even increase tenfold. I wouldn't bet on European companies conquering India in a big way. VW is not half as successful in India as it was in China before e-mobility. At the same time, however, the Indians are well represented in the European market.
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5Lun
@Soprano a) diversity is strength is something else for me. Up to a certain point, ethnonationalism may be okay, but when crimes are actively committed against ethnic minorities, tolerated by politicians, and we move closer to authoritarian states, that's something else. I don't think we need to talk about Russia and China, they clearly serve as a deterrent negative example. Just like Israel, but in a different way. For me, these are incalculable risks that should not be taken. In the worst case scenario, the result is a total loss. For these and various other reasons, I think we are currently seeing a kind of de-globalization and the withdrawal of investments in some countries.
b) Yes, of course you're right at the moment, you're basically securing the advantage of both worlds - cheap Russian raw materials and the aforementioned support. But the question is how this will look in the long term when/if BRICS turns further away from the West. But I think that would go too far into politics. For me, it is also an incalculable risk.
c) I agree, that's why I wouldn't invest in Germany, generally only very selectively within Europe. The hope here is that AI can somehow compensate for this, but in my opinion this will be associated with high costs. However, I also see industrialized nations and established companies as having an advantage here due to their higher capital.
I also agree with you on this point, I don't see a good future for many European companies, and certainly not for VW or car manufacturers. When I gave the example of expanding companies, I had something like Starbucks (1,000 planned store openings in India) or Apple in mind.
Unfortunately, I can't say much about the Indian export economy as an investment in India was not interesting for me for previous reasons. India may of course offer good opportunities, but for me the political and social risks outweigh the opportunities. Therefore, if I wanted to make a bet through ETFs, I would personally opt for sector ETFs.
b) Yes, of course you're right at the moment, you're basically securing the advantage of both worlds - cheap Russian raw materials and the aforementioned support. But the question is how this will look in the long term when/if BRICS turns further away from the West. But I think that would go too far into politics. For me, it is also an incalculable risk.
c) I agree, that's why I wouldn't invest in Germany, generally only very selectively within Europe. The hope here is that AI can somehow compensate for this, but in my opinion this will be associated with high costs. However, I also see industrialized nations and established companies as having an advantage here due to their higher capital.
I also agree with you on this point, I don't see a good future for many European companies, and certainly not for VW or car manufacturers. When I gave the example of expanding companies, I had something like Starbucks (1,000 planned store openings in India) or Apple in mind.
Unfortunately, I can't say much about the Indian export economy as an investment in India was not interesting for me for previous reasons. India may of course offer good opportunities, but for me the political and social risks outweigh the opportunities. Therefore, if I wanted to make a bet through ETFs, I would personally opt for sector ETFs.
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•5Lun
@Din4d4n a) What causes the total loss, if I may ask? So what exactly is the mechanism? Well, in the case of Russia and China it's clear. But I don't see how this becomes a problem in many other countries. At the moment, as a head of state, you don't have to ask yourself "am I too authoritarian?" but only "does the USA like me?".
I can either be an authoritarian country that likes the USA (Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Israel), in which case I get a lot of international investment, or I can be an authoritarian country that doesn't like the USA, in which case I have a problem. De-globalization is only taking place in countries that don't have a good relationship with the USA. There is no country where "the right-wing populists" have somehow won an election and the country itself has decided to trade less. This was not a problem in Brazil and Argentina, for example.
b) Fortunately, the BRICS are not yet the Warsaw Pact. Unlike NATO, you can be a member of several "organizations". India is allied with China and Russia, for example, via BRICS or the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). On the other hand, they are also in the Commonwealth, which is actually a fan club of England's former colonies, or together with the USA and the EU in the Australia Group.
c) I think it's too early to think about the impact of AI because it's too early to tell. So far, there is only one country that has made progress with AI and that is the USA. Compared to them, all other countries are living in the Stone Age. At the moment, there's no telling whether India might not become number 2 and leave the entire EU behind when it comes to AI. It could still happen that AI is simply banned in our country. With the EU Commission, you have to expect anything. This game is still completely open.
Addition: Joar, I wouldn't put much hope in Starbucks right now. Sooner or later, the Indians will learn to make their own coffee. Coffee has also been such an investor's grave in China. Apple is perhaps more interesting, as the Indians have no real ambitions to have their own cell phone brand. However, Apple is simply so huge that even the 1 billion Indians will only move the share price slowly.
I can either be an authoritarian country that likes the USA (Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Israel), in which case I get a lot of international investment, or I can be an authoritarian country that doesn't like the USA, in which case I have a problem. De-globalization is only taking place in countries that don't have a good relationship with the USA. There is no country where "the right-wing populists" have somehow won an election and the country itself has decided to trade less. This was not a problem in Brazil and Argentina, for example.
b) Fortunately, the BRICS are not yet the Warsaw Pact. Unlike NATO, you can be a member of several "organizations". India is allied with China and Russia, for example, via BRICS or the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). On the other hand, they are also in the Commonwealth, which is actually a fan club of England's former colonies, or together with the USA and the EU in the Australia Group.
c) I think it's too early to think about the impact of AI because it's too early to tell. So far, there is only one country that has made progress with AI and that is the USA. Compared to them, all other countries are living in the Stone Age. At the moment, there's no telling whether India might not become number 2 and leave the entire EU behind when it comes to AI. It could still happen that AI is simply banned in our country. With the EU Commission, you have to expect anything. This game is still completely open.
Addition: Joar, I wouldn't put much hope in Starbucks right now. Sooner or later, the Indians will learn to make their own coffee. Coffee has also been such an investor's grave in China. Apple is perhaps more interesting, as the Indians have no real ambitions to have their own cell phone brand. However, Apple is simply so huge that even the 1 billion Indians will only move the share price slowly.
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