7Lun·

It's extremely important to know that no one is going to teach you about crypto! 💡

In most years, the profits of Bitcoin $BTC (-0,45 %) come largely from just the 10 best trading days. In fact, if you exclude those best 10 trading days, Bitcoin is in the red. 📉

Look at this year, for example. Most of the gains took place in the short period at the beginning of the year and now. In the meantime, it has traded sideways in the many months from April to November.

The moral of the story: despite the Fear & Greed Index reaching almost 90, don't think you can time the market because most of Bitcoin's gains happen in a short period of time. That's why a long-term buy and hold strategy will always perform better than trying to time the market. Simply missing that small window of opportunity will leave you flat or negative. 🚀

$MSTR (+2,16 %)
$BTC (-0,45 %)
$COIN (+0,92 %)
$BCH (-1,21 %)

7 Comentarios

Stefan21@stefan_21

7Lun

This is exactly why you get annoyed afterwards in the vast majority of cases if you think you can time the market and try to buy/sell depending on the chart. In the long term, buy & hold is simply the best way to go

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Getking 👑.@Getking

7Lun

@stefan_21 richtig 🤝

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Epi@Epi

7Lun

After your first sentence, you're trying, aren't you?

Your conclusion that because of the 10 best days B&H always beats market timing in the long run is too short sighted.

Correct would be: A successful strategy must ensure that it is invested these 10 best days.

The simplest strategy for this is B&H. Problem: you then also take the 10 worst days with you.

If you had done a little more research for your article, you would know that the probability of the 10 best days above the 200-day line is significantly higher than below it. So a simple trend-following strategy also works.

If you think about it, the only reason left for B&H is the tax.

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Krush82@Krush82

7Lun

@Epi Very nicely written my dear, very few buy and hold investors have these thoughts

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Epi@Epi

7Lun

@Krush82 Thank you! You know how awesome trend following can be.

Very few B&H investors have these thoughts, right. In fact, I suspect that anyone who has and understands these thoughts can no longer be a 100% B&H investor - except for reasons of tax or convenience. 😅

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Steven M.@portfolio_estebansisi

@Epi Thanks for the comment. I've been trying to learn about these things with videos on trading view. Trend lines and candlestick patterns. I just don't get the hang of it yet. Any tips. Which lines do you use? Perhaps there is a topic on getquin already? I just keep making mistakes with crypto ending up with a 30% in the red. Making not well informed decisions on the moment i have the cash. From now on only IWDA mainly and 15 procent in s&p. I've set up positive stop loss (taking Profit trades in bitvavo) none of them have hit. Waiting for thé momentum to sell all crypto of they go back up. I've sold everything that wasn't in the red. For example bluzelle is minus 70 percent and i kept making the mistake of buying new ones to take down the average price. Binance stopped sellling bluzelle so the price dropped massively. Should i sell the 5 biggest losers and buy a crypto i do believe in? Thanks

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Epi@Epi

@portfolio_estebansisi Don't make it too complicated! The simpler and more comprehensible the rule, the more likely you are to stick to it.
I used to trade with candlesticks, RSI, EMA and chart analysis in the hope of hitting the jackpot. I had those too, but I could just about make up for the losses.
In the meantime I have gone back to basics (apart from a few fun trades): SMA200 signal at the turn of the month. That way you keep the probability of profit on your side, nothing more. But that's enough for me.

From this perspective, it also means that most of what you did was wrong. You don't sell winners and you don't hold on to losers. Etc...

My advice: sell EVERYTHING, take a 6-month break, learn everything you can about dual momentum and start again systematically and without baggage on 1.1.26.

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