Puestos
44After my basic framework (after buying the house in September) with $AVGO (+3,92 %) , $COST (-0,93 %) , $APH (+4,75 %) , $PH (+1,21 %) , $CVX (+1,2 %) , $EXENS (+2,95 %) & $NOC (-1,64 %) stands again,
Now go buy something in the almighty $HMWO (+0,88 %)
Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC - Free Report)
Reported adjusted earnings of USD 6.06 per share for the first quarter of 2025, missing the consensus estimate of USD 6.21 by 2.4%.
Including the one-time impact of the B-21 LRIP loss provision, the company reported GAAP earnings of $3.32 per share, down from $6.32 in the year-ago quarter.
The year-over-year decline is due to a pre-tax loss incurred by Northrop Grumman in the first quarter. This was due to higher manufacturing costs, primarily due to a process change to accelerate production, as well as increased forecasted costs and volumes for general procurement materials.
NOC's total revenue
NOC's total revenue of $9.47 billion in the first quarter missed the consensus estimate of $9.91 billion by 4.4%. Sales also fell by 6.6% compared to the same quarter last year (USD 10.13 billion). This decline is attributable to lower sales in the Aerospace Systems and Space Systems segments.
Northrop Grumman's order backlog
The company's total backlog at the end of the first quarter was $92.80 billion, compared to $91.47 billion at the end of the fourth quarter of 2024.
NOC's Aerospace Systems segment details:
This segment's revenue of $2.81 billion decreased by 7.6% compared to the prior year. This is due to lower revenue from B-21 and other constrained programs and a decrease in maintenance volume for the F-35 due in part to material availability.
The division's operating loss amounted to USD 183 million in the first quarter of 2024 compared to an operating profit of USD 306 million. The operating profit margin also deteriorated from 10.1% to an operating loss margin of 6.5%. Mission Systems: Sales in this segment increased by 5.6% to USD 2.81 billion. This was due to higher sales from the SABR (Scalable Agile Beam Radar) program, the expansion of programs for electronic self-protection and international ground-based radar systems as well as a higher volume of naval systems programs.
The unit's operating result fell by 4.5% to USD 361 million.
The operating margin decreased by 130 basis points to 12.9%. Defense Systems: Sales in this segment increased by 3.9% year-on-year to USD 1.81 billion. The improvement is attributable to the further expansion of the Sentinel program and the higher volume of certain military ammunition programs. The unit's operating result improved by 14.7% year-on-year to USD 179 million.
The operating margin increased by 90 basis points to 9.9%.
Space Systems:
Sales in this segment fell by 18.5% to USD 2.57 billion. This is due to the discontinuation of work on the Constrained Space and NGI programs as well as lower volumes in Commercial Resupply Services (CRS), Space Development Agency (SDA) satellite programs and other constrained space programs.
The segment's operating profit fell by 14.2% year-on-year to USD 283 million. However, the operating margin increased by 50 basis points to 11%. Northrop Grumman's Operating Update Total operating income for the quarter was $573 million, a significant decrease from $1,071 million in the prior year quarter.
This decline was due to lower operating results in Aerospace Systems, Mission Systems and Space Systems.
NOC's financial position
Northrop Grumman's cash and cash equivalents were $1.69 billion as of March 31, 2025, compared to $4.35 billion as of December 31, 2024.
Long-term debt (net of current portion) was $14.17 billion compared to $14.69 billion as of December 31, 2024.
Net cash flow from operating activities amounted to USD 1.57 billion in the first three months of 2025 compared to USD 0.71 billion in the previous year.
Northrop Grumman's forecast for 2025
The company partially reaffirmed its 2025 guidance, continuing to expect revenue in the range of $42.00 billion to $42.50 billion. The consensus estimate for revenue is $42.27 billion, above the midpoint of the company's guidance.
.
NOC now expects adjusted earnings of between 24.95 and 25.35 US dollars per share, below the previously forecast range of 27.85 to 28.25 US dollars.
The consensus earnings estimate is $28.08 per share, above the company's new guidance.
Northrop Grumman continues to expect adjusted free cash flow between $2.85 billion and $3.25 billion. $NOC (-1,64 %)
🔹 Adj. EPS: $6.06 (Est: $6.26) 🔴
🔹 Sales: $9.47B (Est: $9.94B; ▼ -7% YoY) 🔴
FY25 Guidance
🔹 Adj. EPS: $24.95–$25.35 (Prior: $27.85–$28.25) 🔴
🔹 Segment Op. Income: $4.2B–$4.35B (Prior: $4.65B–$4.8B) 🔴
🔹 Sales: $42.0B–$42.5B (Reaffirmed)
🔹 Free Cash Flow: $2.85B–$3.25B (Reaffirmed)
Other Key Q1 Metrics
🔹 GAAP EPS: $3.32 (▼ -47% YoY, includes $2.74/share B-21 loss provision)
🔹 Segment Op. Margin: 6.0% (▼ -490 bps YoY)
🔹 Net Earnings: $481M (▼ -49% YoY)
🔹 Free Cash Flow: $(1.82)B (▼ -87% YoY)
🔹 Record Backlog: $92.8B (▲ +5% QoQ)
🔹 Net Awards: $10.8B
🔹 Returned $800M to shareholders (buybacks + dividends)
🔹 Repaid $1.5B in long-term debt
CEO Commentary
🔸 “Global demand for our products remains strong, which is reflected in our record first quarter backlog. We are reaffirming our sales and free cash flow guidance for the year.” – Kathy Warden, CEO
🔸 Guidance does not assume impacts from government shutdowns, spending caps, or additional budget cuts; macro/political environment remains a risk factor.
2025 - A year to forget if you look at the first quarter. While things were still looking positive until around mid-February, things have been going steadily downhill since the middle or end of February.
March 2025 was the worst single month in my portfolio since 2013, with price losses of almost 10%. The negative market trend in the US and a weak US dollar naturally hurt my portfolio particularly badly.
Monthly view:
In total, March was -9,9%. This corresponds to price losses of almost 30.000€.
The MSCI World (benchmark) was -7.9% and the S&P500 -5.8% (in dollars, for euro investors it was also more like -10%).
Winners & losers:
A look at the winners and losers shows a clear picture in March:
Winners? You will look for them almost in vain this month.
In 1st and 2nd place are Deutsche Bank
$DBK (+0,35 %) and Allianz $ALV (-0,11 %) two German financial stocks with gains of around € +180 each. Northrop Grumman $NOC (-1,64 %) at +120€ is only one of 2 American stocks with a positive price performance in March.
A completely different picture on the losers' side:
1st place goes to NVIDIA $NVDA (+2,35 %) with price losses of over €4,200. It is followed by Meta $META (+0,68 %) and Palo Alto Networks
$PANW (+2,51 %) with price losses of ~€2,000 each. 4th place goes to Alphabet
$GOOG (+0,68 %) with €1,600 in share price losses. The flop 5 is then completed by a non-tech stock, namely Starbucks
$SBUX (+0,19 %) with losses of ~€1,400.
The performance-neutral movements were €500 in March - these are still lower at the moment due to the house construction issue.
current year:
In the YTD my portfolio is now also clearly in the red with -8,4%. The MSCI World is still doing better at -5.4%.
In total, my portfolio currently stands at ~260.000€. This corresponds to an absolute decline of ~€25,000 in the current year 2025. -28.000€ of this comes from exchange rate losses, slightly offset by ~900€ from dividends / interest and ~2.000€ from additional investments.
Dividend:
Buying & selling:
Change of strategy?
At the moment, Donald Trump and his policies are causing a lot of scrutiny, especially with regard to the (high) US share in the portfolio.
I can understand these thoughts very well. However, I have decided not to change my strategy and to maintain my high US & tech allocation in my portfolio.
There are certainly better short-term investment opportunities (European defense stocks as an example). Through my savings plans, however, I have deliberately opted for a long-term buying strategy that I will not throw overboard every few months. In the long term, for example, 2022 was an extremely good year to buy tech stocks.
As I don't have a portfolio target for this year anyway, I'm happy to go even lower - hopefully I'll be happy about the entry prices in 2-3 years' time.
YouTube:
Unfortunately, I only uploaded 2 videos to YouTube in March. Unfortunately, work in March was extremely stressful and time-consuming, so there was little time left for this.
I have also uploaded my March portfolio update as a video there if anyone would like to see some more information on the portfolio performance: https://youtu.be/fxbvatj6uvM?si=xP_gvoEmtuqSsfz8
I'm particularly happy to receive criticism or feedback here! 😊
Goal 2025
As already mentioned in the January & February review, a fixed deposit target for this year makes little sense due to the house construction. A fixed savings rate is also difficult to implement due to the issue (unforeseen costs and the like).
A dividend target is also very difficult due to the high volatility of the US dollar.
That's why I'm focusing on other topics this year, especially building a house and possibly one or two YouTube successes.
How are things looking for you? Are you sticking to your portfolio target for 2025 or do you also see difficulties in achieving it after the first quarter?
Technological advances and global challenges are opening up new opportunities in various sectors. In addition to well-known areas such as artificial intelligence and renewable energies, there are less recognized sectors with significant growth potential. Here are some areas where I see a lot of potential.
For each area, I have listed a few stocks that are considered pioneers or already established...
1. 💧 Water management - the blue gold of the future
Why is it exciting?
- Water scarcity is becoming a pressing problem worldwide.
- Investments in water treatment, desalination and efficient use are increasing.
Example company:
- Xylem Inc. $X1YL34 - Specialized in water technologies and solutions.
- Veolia Environnement $VIE (+1,22 %) - Leader in water and waste management.
2. 💻 Data processing & data centers - backbone of the digital era
Why is it exciting?
- Increasing data volumes require powerful infrastructures.
- Cloud computing, edge computing and quantum computing are revolutionizing the industry.
Example companies:
- Equinix $EQIX (+0,48 %) - The world's leading provider of data center services.
- Digital Realty $DLR (+1,66 %) - Specializes in data center solutions for companies.
3. 🚀 Space industry - The new economic space
Why is it exciting?
- Private companies are driving innovation and reducing costs.
- Applications range from satellite communication to space tourism.
Example companies:
- Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc. $SPCE (-2,76 %) (SPCE) - pioneer in the field of space tourism.
- Rocket Lab USA Inc. $RKLB (+3,65 %) (RKLB) - provider of low-cost rocket launches for small satellites.
- Airbus $AIR (-1,37 %) (AIR) - Leader in aerospace technologies.
- Boeing Co. $BA (-0,03 %) (BA) - Involved in manned space programs and satellite technology.
- Northrop Grumman Corp. $NOC (-1,64 %) (NOC) - Specializes in defense and space systems.
4. 🌍 Rare earths & raw materials - foundation of modern technologies
Why are they exciting?
- Electromobility, renewable energies and electronics rely on rare metals.
- Recycling and sustainable mining are becoming increasingly important.
Example company:
- MP Materials $MP (+4,89 %) - Largest producer of rare earths in the USA.
- Lynas Rare Earths $LYSDY (+2,37 %) - Leading supplier outside China.
5. 🌱 Vertical farming - the future of urban food production
Why is it exciting?
- Population growth and urbanization require new farming methods.
- Indoor farming enables year-round production with reduced water consumption.
Example company:
- AeroFarms (not found on getquin) - pioneer in vertical farming with innovative cultivation techniques.
- AppHarvest $APPHQ - Operates high-tech greenhouses for sustainable cultivation.
💡 Conclusion: These emerging sectors offer significant opportunities for investors and innovators. Early involvement could be advantageous in the long term.
🔥 Which of these future industries do you think are particularly promising? Share your opinion in the comments!
✅ I'll list the companies mentioned in the comments here:
$LRV (+2,46 %) (rare earths)
$TTEK (+0,73 %) (water management)
$BMI (+1,75 %) (water management)
$TSLA (+0,9 %) (Robotics)
🔍 Disclaimer: No investment advice - only my personal assessment. Everyone should do their own research!
The markets remain volatile and in times of crisis many investors look for stable investments. But which sectors and companies have historically proven to be particularly resilient or could even benefit?
Consumer staples - products that will always be needed
Companies such as Procter & Gamble $PG (-4,8 %) Nestlé $NESN (+0,46 %) or Coca-Cola $KO (-0,37 %) benefit from their strong market position and stable cash flows. People are always buying household products, food and beverages.
Healthcare sector - crisis-resistant growth stocks
Companies such as Johnson & Johnson $JNJ (-0,55 %) , Eli Lilly $LLY (+3,12 %) or Novo Nordisk $NOVO B (+1,29 %) supply medicines and treatments that are in demand regardless of the economic situation. There is a particular focus on the boom in diabetes and obesity therapies.
Providers - Stable income through basic care
Companies such as NextEra Energy $NEE (-2,66 %) Duke Energy $DUK (-0,9 %) or Southern Company $SO (-0,84 %) are benefiting from the constant demand for electricity and water. Renewable energies are also playing an increasingly important role.
Commodities & gold - hedging against inflation & uncertainty
Gold mining companies such as Barrick Gold $ABX (+0,11 %) or Newmont $NEM (+0,11 %) often benefit in times of economic uncertainty, as investors flee to gold as protection against crises.
Defense & Armaments - Profiteers of geopolitical tensions
Rising military spending worldwide makes companies such as Lockheed Martin $LMT (+0,96 %) or Northrop Grumman $NOC (-1,64 %) into potential winners of long-term conflicts and global uncertainties.
This is just a small selection of companies. But hopefully it gives a small insight into the interesting crisis-proof sectors.
Defensive investors could now focus on consumer staples, healthcare and utilities for long-term stability. Opportunity-oriented investors could look to commodities, gold or defense if geopolitical tensions continue to rise.
It's time for an article in English!
As many investors questioned the sharp drops in U.S. defense stocks after Trump took office, I decided to dive into what’s happening behind the scenes.
Introduction
The U.S. defense sector is facing a realignment in 2025 due to proposed budget cuts of about 8% per year over the next five years. This initiative, driven by the new administration, aims to reallocate roughly $50 billion in defense spending toward emerging priorities like border security, Asia-Pacific presence, and advanced technologies. Such cuts would cumulatively reduce annual defense outlays from roughly $900 billion to around $600 billion by the end of the period – about the level of 2017. These changes directly affect the nation’s largest defense contractors, which span aerospace, cybersecurity, shipbuilding, and weapons manufacturing.
The top five contractors –
Lockheed Martin $LMT (+0,96 %)
RTX Corporation $RTX (+0,54 %)
Northrop Grumman $NOC (-1,64 %)
General Dynamics $GD (+0,63 %)
and Boeing $BA (-0,03 %)
– alone account for a huge share of Pentagon procurement, with defense revenues ranging from $32–65 billion each. This report examines the top 15 U.S. defense contractors and analyzes how the 2025 budget cuts impact their programs, finances, and strategies.
Top 15 U.S. Defense Contractors (by Defense Revenue)
These contractors collectively cover all major sectors of defense. The following sections detail the specific program impacts, financial performance, and strategic outlook for these companies in light of the 2025 budget cuts.
Programs and Contracts Most Impacted by Budget Cuts
💥 Major Defense Programs Facing Cuts or Changes
🚀 Strategic Adaptations and Company Outlooks
📊 Financial Impact and Stock Performance Post-Cuts
🔮 Multi-Year Outlook and Conclusions
In conclusion, the 2025 budget cuts introduce challenges, but the U.S. defense-industrial base remains strong. Contractors that adapt to changing priorities – focusing on innovation, efficiency, and global markets – will be best positioned for long-term success.
What do you think—are these budget cuts a short-term setback or a long-term shift for the defense industry?
Share your thoughts and let’s discuss where the best opportunities might be.
To promote the learning effect:
Take a look at the link in my pinned post to $BATS (-0,21 %) . Perfectly run to the zone and could now break out again.
Also in the daily chart $LMT (+0,96 %) & $NOC (-1,64 %)
But enough from me now, after-work beer is calling 🍻
To clarify the cash flow:
- B2 Spirit, maintenance costs $122,000 per flight hour
- B-21 Raider, 100 ordered, unit price 778 million $
- Contract worth $13.3 billion for the development of new ICBM missiles.
In addition, div growth of 12% over 3 years
and payout ratio at 27%
Funfact: $NOC (-1,64 %) also builds these ugly American post office cars
Total return
1.425,88 €
True time-weighted rate of return
24.37 % That's my balance sheet from January! I am very happy with that! I have sold all my short-term trading positions. I built up my first positions for February yesterday and today. These are derivatives on $ADYEN (+0,1 %) (MG9L2B) purchase yesterday at 4.15 $ZAL (-0,24 %) ( UG0W0H) Buy today at 5.84 $NOC (-1,64 %) (HT21L8) purchase day before yesterday at 1.10 I have planned purchases in $FTNT (+2,26 %) ( JT7XG3) $AMZN (+1,51 %) ( MJ5V94) $ADS (-1,34 %) (ME44Y2) and for a little longer $AXON (-0,46 %) (Ht1KYH) I am keeping the remaining powder dry in case there are great opportunities like last Monday.
